FanPost

How important is defense?

I posted this in another thread, but I think it's worth a look here. If you finish in the top 5 defenses, you are almost an 90% chance to make playoffs. If you finish outside the top 10 in rushing (team and/or individual) you are better than 50% to make playoffs.

Playoff team rankings for last few years.

This lists their D ranking PPG, O ranking, and Rushing Ranking followed with individual top rusher. Given the amount of data, I’m using basic stats. SB teams in bold

2011
Texans – 4, 10, 2, 5
Broncos – 24, 25, 1, 8
Bengals – 9, 18, 19, 12
Steelers – 1, 21, 14, 21
Patriots – 15, 3, 20, 27
Ravens – 3, 12, 10, 2
Saints – 13, 2, 6, 33
Lions – 23, 4, 29, none in top 50
Packers – 19, 1, 27, 38
Giants – 25, 9, 32, 29
Falcons – 18, 7, 17, 3
49ers – 2, 11, 8, 6

Top 4 defenses made it, top 4 total offenses made it, 4 of top 10 rushers made it, 7 teams with no top 10 rusher made it. No good running game here

2010
Jets – 6, 13, 4, 19
Colts – 23, 4, 29, 41
Ravens – 3, 16, 14, 10
Chiefs – 11, 14, 1, 2
Steelers – 1, 12, 11, 7
Pats – 8, 1, 9, 16
Seahawks – 25, 23, 31, 37
Saints – 7, 11, 28, 31
Packers – 2, 10, 24, 32
Eagles – 21, 3, 5, 14
Bears – 4, 21, 22, 15
Falcons – 5, 5, 12, 3

9 teams with no top 10 rusher made it. Top 4 D made it, only 4 top 10 rushing teams made it. 8 top 10 defenses made it.

2009

Jets – 1, 17, 1, 3,
Bengals – 6, 22, 9, 8
Ravens – 3, 9, 5, 6
Pats – 5, 6, 12, 27
Colts – 8, 7, 32, 22
Chargers – 11, 4, 31,29
Cowboys – 2, 14, 7, 17
Eagles – 19, 5, 22, 35
Cardinals – 14, 11, 28, 24
Packers – 7, 3, 14, 7
Vikings – 10, 2, 13, 5
Saints – 20, 1, 6, 24

8 of top 10 defenses made it. 5 of top 10 rushing teams in. 5 teams in bottom half of league in rushing made it. 5 in top 10 individual rushers, 7 outside of it. Neither SB team had a top 10 rusher

2008 (going with Divisional round only from here on out)

Ravens – 3, 11, 4, 20
TItans – 2, 14, 7, 8
Steelers – 1, 20, 23, 26
Chargers – 15, 2, 20, 10
Cardinals – 28, 3, 32, 42
Panthers – 12, 7, 3, 3
Eagles – 4, 6, 22, 18
Giants – 5, 3, 1, 11

Top 5 defenses made it. One in bottom half of league. 3 of top 4 rushing teams made it. 3 of top 10 rushers made it. 5 outside of top 10 made it. Neither SB team had a good running game.

2007

Pats – 4, 1, 13, 23

Jags – 10, 6, 2, 9
Chargers -5, 5, 7, 1
COlts – 1, 3, 18, 14
Giants – 17, 14, 4, 15
Cowboys – 13, 2, 17, 18
Packers – T6, 4, 21, 19
Seahawks – T6, 9, 20, 30

6 of top 10 defenses. 2 of top 10 rushers, 3 of top 10 rushing attacks

2006

Colts – 23, T2, 18, 18
Ravens – 1, 12, 25, 16
Pats – 2, 7, 12, 28
Chargers – 7, 1, 2, 1
Saints – 13, 5, 19, 20
Eagles – 15, 6, 11, 8
Bears – 3, T2, 15, 11
Seahawks – 19, 14, 14, 27

Top 3 defenses made it. Only one top 10 rushing team. Only 2 top 10 rushers.

Every single year 3 of the top 4 or 4 of the top 6 defenses made the playoffs. Every year less than half the teams had a top rusher. Never did the top 4 rushing teams make it and in every year, at least half of the playoff field contained teams NOT in the top 10 in rushing.

Running backs are fungible. You can plug and play. Teams know this. If you want to be successful in the league, have a top defense. You are almost guaranteed a playoff spot if you are a top 4 D. You are more likely to make the playoffs with a non top 10 rushing attack and a non top 10 individual rusher.

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