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Josh Freeman was the NFL's 8th best quarterback according to ESPN's Quarterback Rating (QBR)

ESPN is putting on a full-court press for the statistic that they hope will replace passer rating: Quarterback Rating or QBR. Passer rating is a horribly outdated statistic, based on 40-year-old data and failing to take into account crucial aspects of a quarterback's play like sacks, running, how effective a pass was and other aspects. Still, it wasn't all bad: you could use it at a glance to see which QB approximately had a better season or game. It wasn't perfect, but it sufficed for that purpose. 

ESPN's new QBR is a lot more complicated, and includes a lot of new things. Sacks, rushing yards, effectiveness of passes (8 yards on 3rd-and-9 is less valuable than 2 yards on 3rd-and-1), yards a pass traveled through the air vs yards a receiver gains after the catch: all of these things are incorporated. And all of it is weighted by a 'clutch' adjustment, which is a poorly chosen term for explaining they look at how much the pass or run helped a team win a game. If you want the full explanation, follow this link. All this doesn't mean the new rating is perfect, it's just another tool to evaluate players, as with every statistic. Interestingly, the stat is very similar to Football Outsiders' DVOA, without opponent adjustments and with a few game-charting based additions. 

All that said, it's interesting to see that this new statistic values Josh Freeman pretty highly. In 2010, he was the NFL's 10th best quarterback by this measure, ahead of established players like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub, though still lagging behind Matt Ryan and Eli Manning as well as the standard list of elite quarterbacks. In fact, ESPN now has Freeman ranked as the most efficient running quarterback in the NFL, though that's hardly the most important part of a quarterback's job.

The fact that Freeman does well in these rankings isn't entirely surprising, of course. According to the old Passer Rating he was even the 6th best quarterback of 2010, while Football Outsiders had him ranked as the 9th best quarterback. In fact, it seems the new QBR values Freeman a little less than other measures. 

All this to say that there is now a new tool to evaluate quarterbacks statistically, and it's better than passer rating. Along with Football Outsiders' DVOA, Advanced NFL Stats' different measures and of course more traditional statistics, there are plenty of statistics to choose from to support any argument about quarterbacks. 

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I refuse to accept Matt Ryan at #3

I don’t think I buy that list in that order as being reflective of last season. I’ll need to think about it some more.

by aakks on Aug 5, 2011 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, that seems awfully high

I think that’s one case where a lack of opponent adjustments and that ‘clutch’ adjustment really make a difference. He was 7th by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, which does have opponent adjustments but lacks the ‘clutch’ adjustment.

by Sander on Aug 5, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the season

When I see the game, then see the stat it will probably be more revealing than trying to remember last season.

by aakks on Aug 5, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

When adjusting for defensive strength

I went back and tracked Vince Young and he was terrible. Yet, he is in the upper echelon of ESPN’s new QBR.

Formerly UNFNole

by MNeilson on Aug 5, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, that's the major weakness of this thing

In fact, most stats that don’t adjust for opponents love Vince Young, not just QBR. Although he was 5th in DVOA last year with Football Outsiders, so maybe it isn’t just that

by Sander on Aug 5, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

No he doesn't and I think a couple guys got a bad rap

Cutler and Orton – Not top 10 guys or anything but they seem too low. Most of the other guys I’d only suffle a few places, so I’m thinking they’re close enough to be credible with me.

by aakks on Aug 5, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cutler, statistically, has never been good.

He’ll put up big numbers, but FO has always ranked him incredibly low as well.

Formerly UNFNole

by MNeilson on Aug 5, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eli Manning is really helped by that game charting

A ton of his interceptions last really weren’t his fault, as passes seemed to magically bounce off his receivers.

by Sander on Aug 5, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I noticed that

his guys were just popping the ball up.

Nasty pirate zombie.. Arrgg!

by Titankillah on Aug 5, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Michael Clayton'd

I focus on money my hands touch
If that right there don’t add up
I gotta let you know your math sucks
You don’t ever talk to a calculator
You don’t get caught with an ounce of paper
Every convo is about a favour

by 4QB on Aug 5, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

uh, what?

Did you ever watch his games in Atlanta?

Formerly UNFNole

by MNeilson on Aug 5, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, this was a totally different Vick

He wasn’t as quick to bail, he was much more accurate and seemed to understand the passing game much, much better.

Though at the end of last season he seemed to regress. And he really does need to learn how to slide or go out of bounds to avoid big hits.

by Sander on Aug 5, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Vick seems to have a better frame than his Falcon dies, he can still run but his body is bigger.

I focus on money my hands touch
If that right there don’t add up
I gotta let you know your math sucks
You don’t ever talk to a calculator
You don’t get caught with an ounce of paper
Every convo is about a favour

by 4QB on Aug 5, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

*days, not dies

I focus on money my hands touch
If that right there don’t add up
I gotta let you know your math sucks
You don’t ever talk to a calculator
You don’t get caught with an ounce of paper
Every convo is about a favour

by 4QB on Aug 5, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

He does But

There was an interview after one of his early big games that stated that no matter what he will not slide cause it feels unnatural for him he said that it stems from when he played baseball and that he will not change how he plays so with that I believe he will be missing games next year due to injury.

by jammin85 on Aug 5, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

So he wouldn't slide when he played baseball either?

Am I going MAD, or did the word "think" escape your lips?

by Kilgore on Aug 5, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see that.

Sliding in baseball looks cool, but in football it looks… um… gay, in a strictly non-offensive, but definitely relating to homosexuality, way.

Am I going MAD, or did the word "think" escape your lips?

by Kilgore on Aug 5, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel ya!

And if u noticed he was different in the first half than the 2nd half of the season….now that the NFL has tape on him….they will find a way…..everyone finds a way

by shadowchicken on Aug 6, 2011 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

The NFL had years of tape on him last year

And it’s not like they don’t watch tons of tape during the season. That whole “now they have tape on him” thing is way overblown.

by Sander on Aug 6, 2011 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of it had to do with his receivers getting open.

He had some bad WR in Atlanta, and Vick needs a slightly bigger window to throw in. There is no question that he was just more accurate with the ball and didn’t make nearly the amount of stupid decisions he used to. I just can’t believe that he doesn’t return closer to his career body of work. I will take facing the Atlanta Vick any day over the Filthy Vick. Bucs were always very good at not completely changing their defense for Vick and had the luxury of very fast linebackers and ends to contain him. Teams that were unsuccessful against him were the ones that tried to cater their defense to him too much.

Formerly UNFNole

by MNeilson on Aug 6, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

ESPN just did a piece on QBR

With my favorite, Jaws and Gruden. I don’t care who you are, you have to admit he was that Mike Ditka / Blood pressure over 220 kind of coach.. I miss sunday verbal abuse.

Nasty pirate zombie.. Arrgg!

by Titankillah on Aug 5, 2011 9:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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