Is Michael Koenen an elite punter? What do the numbers say?
by LeeCaz on Aug 2, 2011 8:15 AM EDT
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PrintIf you're a natural born skeptic like me, you may be curious about the Buccaneers one and only free agent acquisition thus far, punter Michael Koenen. We have been hearing about what a great addition he is, but recently a Falcons fan dropped into one of our threads and said he thought Koenen's leg had lost a bit over the past couple of seasons. So I decided to do a bit of research and see for myself. Below I have compared both the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers punting statistics for the 2010 season. I think you may be surprised. All stats are pulled from espn.com.
| RK | TEAM | PUNTS | YDS | LNG | AVG | NET | BP | IN20 | TB | FC | RET | RETY | AVG |
| 24 | Tampa Bay | 76 | 3053 | 64 | 40.2 | 37.1 | 0 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 232 | 7.3 |
| 25 | Atlanta | 74 | 3014 | 61 | 40.7 | 37.5 | 1 | 29 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 241 | 8.6 |
Not nearly as big a difference as we thought huh? For starters, the rank is insignificant. It is just ordered in terms of total punt yardage, which is pretty much a useless stat in my opinion. Next, we can easily see right off the bat that Tampa and Atlanta had a fairly similar punting game last season. Total yards, punt average, and net yards are all virtually identical.
Koenen makes a significant improvement over the Bucs punters in punts landed inside the twenty (ranked 8th), as well as punts that were fair caught (ranked 2nd). The return average was almost a yard and a half less for Tampa, but that doesn't really fall on Koenen's shoulders so much as the coverage teams.
Koenen ranked 26th in net yards last season. That may be the most telling stat of all. He's certainly not the worst in the NFL, and once on the opposing end of the field he is worth every penny of that $3.5M salary, but those net yards may indeed be a cause for concern. The thing that concerns me most is obviously his leg power. He was actually a little worse than the guys that the Bucs scraped off the bottom of the barrel last season after they wasted a sixth round draft pick on Virginia Tech's Brent Bowden.
Ultimately I'm taking the wait and see approach with Koenen. This is a small sample size, and I'll admit that last year may have been an outlier, because I simply didn't take the time to look up his stats from previous years. I also realize that some of Koenen's value is tied in with his ability to kick off, but think that particular asset is pretty much negated by the rule change this year.
What do you think Bucs Nation? Did we overpay for an average punter? Does Mark Dominik over value the position after spending a sixth rounder on Bowden and then shelling out almost twenty million for a free agent?
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Foiled by front page formatting again!
I hope this is readable for most of you guys.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
The difference between the 2 set of stats...
is insignificant, at best. Sorry, but I can’t seem to make myself get excited about a punter.
Yeah. I just wanted to see if he is really the punter the local media is making him out to be.
He is above average and great at pinning teams inside the 20, but it’s hard to imagine justifying that salary. He makes more than a significant portion of guys on this team. That’s crazy to me.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Just went and checked Koenen's past five years of net yards
In 2009 he ranked 23rd with an average of 36.9
In 2008 he ranked 13th with an average of 40.0
In 2007 he ranked 10th with an average of 40.0
In 2006 he ranked 21st with an average of 38.4
In 2005 he ranked 15th with an average of 39.3
So at first glance, it would appear that the visiting Falcons fan was right. Koenen has lost something on his leg over the past two seasons.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
With the new rule change regarding kickoffs...
the perceived advantage there may be a moot point. Koenen has kinda waivered around in the middle of the punter pack his entire career. Hardly a Reggie Roby or Shane Lechler.
It's not a moot point compared to Barth
Barth with the new rule will kick it on average to the 5, while Koenen will kick, on average, a touchback. He’s much better than Barth on kickoffs. And given the fact that he was near the top of the league there for the past years, he should be better than most kickers as well.
That's a pretty accurate assessment.
Although I don’t Koenen is elite so much as Barth is horrible. Koenen kicked the ball an average of 67.6 yards, while Barth kicked the ball an average of 61.7. Koenen had 23 touchbacks last year, and Barth only had one, which is pathetic. Koenen should clearly be the kickoff kicker as his distance should lead to a TB almost every time.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/stats/playersort/NFL/K-KICKOFFS/2010/regular
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Barth is really, really bad as a kickoff guy
But Koenen has been near the top these past few years. If there’s one thing he’s really good at, it’s that.
Yep. Top five in distance last year. I had no idea Billy Cundiff had such a leg.
71.1 yards and 40 TBs. Geez.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Cunduff is weird
In the years before he never even got close to the distance. It’s a huge jump. And honestly, it smells fishy.
Maybe focusing on the kickoffs took away practice time from the punting.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Net yards do not matter..
If the line of scrimmage is the 35, and he puts it out at the 2, then he only gets credit for a 33-yard punt, even though it was executed perfectly. Also, as mentioned, a lot of that is based off of Atl’s coverage unit as well. The guy is definitely a huge upgrade as a punter, and an even bigger upgrade as a kickoff specialist. Is $3.5mil a bit high? Yes, but the guy was also franchised by the Falcons TWICE, so obviously others think he’s pretty decent too.
They do matter.
The instance you cited literally happens for every single punter. It all averages out in the end. His net yards going down significantly over the past two years means he is kicking it less far.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
A punter on a good offense will encounter this more often than a punter on a poor offense, though
Defense helps, too. It’s part of the reason why Shane Lechler has such a ridiculous average. Yes, he has a great leg, but the Raiders also put him in position to use it
Eh, the punters for Philly, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore are all in the top ten in net yards, so I don't know if it factors in all that much.
Looking at the list from top to bottom I wouldn’t think the offenses proficiency plays that much into the net average overall. Lechler is a good example, but Koenen’s longest punt was only 61 yards last year, although he did kick a 70 yarder the year before.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Football Outsiders' stats are interesting too
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst
Koenen/kickoff coverage got the Falcons 14.6 points above league average last year, which was 3rd in the league. Punting, however, got them 0 points: exactly league average. In 2009, the Falcons got 15.1 points drom the kicking game, which led the league, but -9.6 points which was near the bottom. In ‘08, they got 9.2 points out of kicking and 3.0 out of punting. IN ’07, they got just 1.9 points out of kickoffs, but 11.2 out of punting: second in the league. It’s weird that kickoffs and punts flip-flopped after ’07 for him.
It’s important to remember that this isn’t solely a measure of Koenen, as coverage units play a big role as well, but it does seem like he has been a mediocre punter at best, but a very good kickoff guy.
Agreed.
I’m not mad about the signing at all. Just shocked at the sticker price. If we had thrown that money into the J. Joseph deal I wonder if it would have made a difference.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Coverage units are important
but it is also important to give you coverage units enough time to get down the field and make a play. Hang time isn’t really a measured stat, but shows up in Net Yards.
Also, the boots inside of the 20 are an incredibly significant stat.
Formerly UNFNole
Absolutely
I seem to remember Koenen getting good hangtime when I watched them. I’m at least pretty sure I never went “ugh what a horrible punt” over him.
I don't remember Bidwell having that stong of a leg.
I do remember when he seemed like the best player on our team.
Maybe he has a photographic memory and will reveal all the secrets of the their playbook.
Am I going MAD, or did the word "think" escape your lips?
Net Yards Not Important here...
Something no one has mentioned – but is critical in any evaluation of Koenen – is how good of an offense Atlanta has had. More often than not, Koenen was punting to the short end of the field – not from his own 20 yard line or anything. This naturally means his average punts are going to be shorter. He’s got less yardage to kick to! What’s important here is his punts within the 20 (he’s awesome at that) and kickoffs (awesome too). His average has less to do with leg strength and everything to do with field position he was given.
People have mentioned that.
Several times since he was signed.
Am I going MAD, or did the word "think" escape your lips?
As the Falcon Fan mentioned,
I stand by what I said. On average, He’s a good punter and a quality pickup, and I hope he works out for you. We (as fans) just had a few concerns about his punting distance when he wasn’t given a short field. Sure, give him a short field and he’s great. But, he left the defence behind the 8-ball on more than one occasion (but what kicker hasn’t).
Sad to see him leave the Falcons
I’m a life-long Falcons Fan so I hate all ya’ll (just kidding)!!! That said, I’m not to happy seeing Koenen going to a div rival, regardless of what the stats say. Think about this:
1. We did franchise him twice, and under the old regimes, he was pretty much the only consistent weapon we had.
2. He’s been a great precision kicker, but could/can boom it when he wants to. Back in the day (when our offense never attained good field position), he was our ONLY chance of staying in the game, by giving the D something to work with.
3. In 2008, Koenen and Co set the NFL record for fewest punt return yards in a season.
4. Now that the offense is much better, he hasn’t had the need to punt as far. He still manages to be very precise with relatively few touchbacks (the shank in the Packers playoff game notwithstanding).
You guys got a really good deal…hope it doesn’t come back to bite us. Cheers!
by williamandrews31 on Aug 3, 2011 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Since 2008 though
He has been pretty poor. Many Falcons fans weren’t sad to see him go and were surprised at the contract he was given.
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