The Free Agency Perspective
by Bruce McRae on Jul 4, 2011 1:06 PM EDT
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As we hopefully inch towards a new CBA and the end of the lockout, there is significant talk of free agency and how it affects the Buccaneers. This is true of both the team's own free agents as well as those players available around the league. But before we go all wild about signing this guy or that guy or resigning our own, I think it's best to understand a couple things that may affect our team's decisions.
We all know the team has a ridiculous amount of room under the proposed new salary cap that they will need to spend, which leads many to think we'll have to sign several big name free agents or at the very least resign our own. But, something to consider here is that the team isn't simply looking at the current league year of spending. Rather, they're taking into consideration future years and how the team will be affected by salaries then as well. If we sign Barrett Ruud to a long term deal (probably the only way he'd resign with the Bucs), we have to consider that he will take a decent chunk of cap room in future years when we're looking to lock up some of the young guys like Freeman, GMC, Blount, Williams, etc. to contract extensions. We must make sure room is available in a few years to lock up those young guys that are deserving. Guys like Asomugha will not take a killer 1 year deal over a great 6 year deal.
This, of course, leads people to say, "Let's just extend all our young guys to bigger deals now". Guys like Blount and Williams, guys who are playing for 4th round or undrafted player money. They're worth it, look what they did. Not so fast. First off, let's remember they've only had success one year. The Bucs will likely want to see that continue before extending their contracts. But, beyond that, there may be an issue with extending the contracts of many of our young players. It seems there may be a restriction for NFL teams against restructuring or extending contracts of players without a certain number of years in the league. I've heard both 2 years and 3 years as minimum service in the league before a team can restructure or extend a contract. I'm inclined to believe that it's 2 years, as Chris Johnson of the Titans had his contract reworked last year after only 2 years in the league. Regardless, that would mean that guys like Blount and Williams will have to wait until next year before getting a deal redone anyway.
So, we can't rework contracts of the really young guys, and we don't want to sign long term deals with high dollar players. What's that leave? Well, it's hard to say, but I would believe that the team will still resign a good number of their own players. Probably the biggest deal will be Davin Joseph, as the team showed last year by signing Penn that protecting Freeman is a priority. Barrett Ruud (like him or not) will probably not be back. Quincy Black is much more likely, as he'll not be able to demand the dollars or the length of contract that Ruud would. Caddy is also a possibility to return, as his value is much less now that he's considered a "third down back" rather than an every down guy. The rest may or may not be retained based on whether depth is needed at the position or not.
As for the rest of the guys out there? Don't look for "First Tier" free agents. It's not because ownership is cheap, it's because they don't want the salary near the cap in two or three years when we need to be locking up our own young guys to long term deals. We won't see Asomugha here, but possibly Jonathon Joseph. So, forget all the top name guys, and start looking "Second level", and that's where you'll find the guys the team will look to pull from. Guys they can sign for 2 or 3 years and a decent contract, then cut loose if the young guys step up by then. Yeah, I know, we'll still have to put up with all the "Glazers are cheap" talk for another year or so, but it's a model that works in the NFL. Don't pay top dollar and long term deals for free agents unless you want to be in cap hell when it comes time to resign your own.
So, considering all this, who do you think the Bucs will resign of their own? Do you still think they'll bring in a "First Tier" free agent? What "Second Level" free agents could you see them getting for a year or two (remember though, if a guy is leaving his current team, it's usually for a long term, large contract)?
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The current minimum for re-signing players is 2 years
But that could increase in the new CBA, or the minimum could even disappear.
Good post, though. Personally I think they re-sign Joseph, Hayward, and try to re-sign Black (though he may be too expensive). As for free agents, they’ll probably go after some second-tier guys. Maybe a cornerback, but more likely a right tackle or even a guard.
Until there's a CBA
it’s all a guessing game. I guess my point is that, for all those saying we need to re-up the contracts of Blount and Williams, etc., we can’t yet. If the CBA remains the same in that regard, we can’t give Mike Williams or Blount a better deal until next season. So, that’s off the table when it comes to spending salary cap money this year. But it still plays an important role in who we DO sign. If we sign someone to a long term deal, will the funds be there to renegotiate those contracts when the time comes? That’s why I don’t see Ruud coming back or Asomugha being signed. They’ll both demand long term deals.
Joseph is another story. I think they want to sign him long term. Black and Hayward should be considered, at best, second tier free agents, so I see at least one, if not both, back with the team. I agree that a couple O-linemen are also likely to be signed.
This is also not considering all the undrafted players yet to be signed, but their salaries are negligible and won’t help the team meet salary cap/floor demands.
Players that could have their contracts renegotiated (if the team should choose to do so), to help meet the cap floor, could be guys like Geno Hayes, Jeremy Zuttah, and depending on what happens even Tanard Jackson (although probably to only a 3-4 year deal for only slightly more than he makes now and plenty of clauses in case of suspension).
What I'm really looking at here...
is that Freeman, GMC, and Talib already have very good contracts (Talib’s is especially nice, considering his legal troubles). None of them are near a renegotiation yet. None of last year’s draft choices are eligilble to renegotiate yet. From 2009 draft, Roy Miller, EJ Biggers, and Sammie Stroughter are the best options to up their salary, but I don’t think any has proven enough yet. That doesn’t leave much to be renegotiated to take up cap space, other than the guys that have already reached free agency. Guys like Black, Hayward, Joseph, Ruud, Caddy.
I’m also looking 2 years down the road and seeing the team wanting to have some contracts up and let a few guys go, in order to keep players that have performed and are hitting free agency. Guys like Blount or Williams, assuming their production earns it. Which is why I don’t see ANY top tier free agents being signed this year unless they’re willing to accept a 2 year deal.
I'd be fine with top tier free agent as long as he's an O Lineman.
Beyond that I agree that we need to plan for cap room needs to be available in the next few years. You do that by drafting low. So you Protect Freeman!
I think Logan Mankins and that Pats are done with each other. The Ravens don’t know what to do with Jared Gaither. Go after them 100%, especially Mankins. We can outbid anyone for one of those guys. After that see what we can do and then mine the undrafted free agents and practice squads again.
I agree, Mankins or Gaither would be the only ones we should *agressively pursue
Though Gaither isn’t the best pass blocker as you can tell by Baltimore’s crappy oline play.
Also, isn’t both of these short-term answers? I’m on a dialup comp right now so I can’t check age. Can anyone hook me up?
((b-town))
If we were to pursue a free agent o-lineman, I think it would be more likely the Bucs go after someone like Jammal Brown. At this stage of his career he’s more likely to accept the kind of contract the Bucs would be offering; a handful of years for 2nd tier money most likely.
Also Titan, I don’t think we want to try and find long-term answers through FA, because if a player is good enough to be a long-term answer there’s a good chance his own team will do everything to bring him back unless he prices himself way up there. The only chance we have of finding a long-term answer for one of our need positions, at a price the Bucs can swallow, is if there’s such an abudance of free agents that the market price is driven down because of the surplus. Otherwise we’re talking first-tier money in a best case scenario.
You've won this one KRoa, I'll be waiting in the shadows lol
By what you’ve said you in the 2nd paragraph – 1st sentence, you make it sound like FA should be avoided at all costs.
((b-town))
Avoided completely, no. I just don’t think there’s going to be someone who’s truly a long-term answer in free agency that will have a reasonable price tag. I’d rather they grab someone who’s still relatively young like Brown, who has the ability to play at a high level, without the high price tag. That way if Brown begins consistently playing at a high level, we’re golden and have a decent answer. If he remains a stopgap option, we can use him to gain the time necessary to draft a long-term answer at some point in the next year or two.
Logan Mankins is 29 and Jared Gaither is 25...
so a 4-5 year deal for either one will still give you a productive player over that span.
I'd love to see the team attempt to get a good O-lineman
even top tier. If they’re going to spend, that’s the place to spend it. It wouldn’t be much different that signing Davin to a long term deal. We could add Gaither to Davin and Penn and have 3 of 5 linemen locked in for the next 5 years. The key there is whoever it is has to be better than who we have.
Where I don’t think they’ll sign long-term is MLB or DB. We won’t sign Ruud or Asomugha to a 5 or 6 year deal. That’s the type of deal both will demand and be able to get. But when you look at it, we have guys on the team that are obviously set up to step in eventually. Biggers was a “pull a rabbit out of the hat” 7th round pick that turns out pretty decent. Myron Lewis is an untested 3rd rounder that could end up doing well. They’ve also got Cody Grimm and Ahmad Black to look at. With the addition of Mason Foster to Dekoda Watson, Tyrone McKenzie and Geno Hayes, I think they like what they have there and see a future in that group. Keep Black and Hayward and we’ll even have some depth. But all of those guys will be looking for a new contract in the next 2-4 years. And a big contract to Aso or Ruud would make it difficult to maintain those players.
I think they should try to get Asomugha!!! And why not? He makes a below average defense better,
and if Talib gets his shtuff straight and stays with the team, we’d have one of the scariest backfields in the league.
I would not be so upset if they went after him and did not sign him as I would if they did not try at all. Kudos to Stevie Y for at least trying to get Brad Richards even though we (the Lightning) had no chance to land him.
I'm not negative, I'm just telling you how it is.
And when Talib is due a new contract
but we’ve already got $10M per year tied up in (then) 32 year old Asomugha, with 3 or 4 years left on the contract (which would count against us if we just cut him to make room for a new Talib deal), what happens then? If Talib gets out of this whole legal mess, turns his life around and gets in no more trouble, becomes the “shut down” CB we all would love him to be, and is still young…. what do we do then? No way the team ties up $20M per year in the two CBs. But we can’t cut Aso then, so we have to let Talib go. Is that really a better solution?
I don’t have a problem if they want to look at a guy like Jonathon Joseph, and see if they can get him for a couple years. We’ve got two guys that now have experience in Lewis and Biggers that may do very well for us. Ronde is here this year as well. Seems like an awfully crowded CB group already, and to tie up significant cap space for the next 4 to 6 years just seems like such a waste. I understand we have the room this year, but what about 2 years down the road?
If you sign Joseph to a 5 year deal...
and re-sign Talib (assuming the mess is behind him) you are in great position for the next 5 years. Who cares about giving Lewis, Biggers and the rest of them a chance.
You have 2 solid starters at the CB position and the rest can fight for back-up spots.
Joseph and Talib would be a nice tandem...
But if Talib is allowed to play this season I say we pass on CB all together this year and take one in the 1st round of the 2012 draft. I’d really like to see us beef up our O-line. Resign Davin Joseph, aggressively pursue Logan Mankins, and give Jamal Brown a long look. Morris said it himself “it’s all about #5” and keep in mind we have some excellent pass rushers on our schedule this upcoming season. Personally, I think Faine is grossly overrated and very injury prone and would like to see Zuttah become the starting center. He’s proven that he can be just as good as if not a better center than Faine; he’d also be a lot cheaper. But assuming Faine is the starter…Penn, Mankins, Faine, Joseph, and Brown would give us a mean bunch on the offensive front. Which would give Freeman the protection he needs and, open up some pretty nice running lanes for “Blount Trauma”.
by ctd1977 on Jul 5, 2011 10:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If Talib is not in jail and/or not playing in Tampa any longer.
I’m not keeping my hopes up for Talib being here. He still could be suspended half the season, and what about next year? If he’s found guilty, he’s most likely going to prison. Of course he should have done this in FL where you can get away with murder. :D
I'm not negative, I'm just telling you how it is.
Why is everyone afraid of going after a top tier guy?
Everyone seems to think that Talib is going to turn his life around and get straight. What would we do if that happened? No one seems to be mentioning the philosophy of one of the best coaches in football. Bill Belichick traded away Richard Seymour and got a first round pick and that was without any legal troubles. Belichick is the master of trading players for draft picks at just the right time to get maximum value. Perhaps we should look to his example. I don’t know about you but if I’m running a franchise and someone screws up as much as Talib has I would try and move him rather than pay him. That way you get something back from him and don’t have to worry about him relapsing into his old ways. If you adopt this philosophy then you sign Asomugha to a 4 year deal, trade Talib, and draft a replacement that Asomugha can mentor for 3 years. Boom! Cap problem solved and long term solution in place and we still spend to bring in a top tier free agent to meet that salary cap floor but not sacrifice quality play on the field or our long term team cap health.
Sounds like a good plan but...
The problem is, mostly due to Talibs off-the-field issues we won’t get a 1st round pick for him at this point if we traded him. Talib would need to put together a few good seasons with no off-the-field issues and 1 or 2 pro-bowl appearances minimum for any team to give us a 1st round pick for him. IMO we’re kinda stuck with Talib; we as Buc fans consider him a shutdown corner but that’s just not the case around the league. For the most part, teams only give up 1st round picks for top 5 players and since many around the NFL consider Talib a top 20 corner right now we’d be lucky to get a 2nd round pick for him. Personally, I’d like for us to give him one last chance, I think this latest incident is exactly what Talib needed to get his life turned around; he’s never been in trouble to this extent and he’ll be a better player because of it. The Bucs also would have more leverage as far as contract negotiations are concerned because of these off-the-field issues. Remember: some years back when Ray Lewis went to trial for murder. Lewis was good player before that incident but once he got through it his game went to another level. That’s what I believe will happen with Talib. With all of that said, assuming Talib is allowed to play this season I vote to pass on Nnamdi and focus our attention on our O-Line come Free Agency. Nnamdi could easily become the highest paid player in the league when free agency starts. And, when you consider the fact that mostly all of our core players are under 25 and still playing on rookie contracts, we’ll need that money down the road.
by ctd1977 on Jul 6, 2011 8:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think you're putting too much faith in Talib.
I don’t expect him to be here much longer.
I'm not negative, I'm just telling you how it is.
Really though?
I mean, his lawyer is sounding pretty confident.
Do you think Rah/Dom are going to wash their hands of him? I really hope not.. It would only justify going after Aso or Joseph. I guess if we pick up a CB in FA it’ll be writing on the walls : /
((b-town))
His lawyer sounding confident doesn't really mean much
He is a lawyer, after all. The fact that he pushed for a trial instead of going for a settlement may be more meaningful.
If Talib is cleared of any legal wrongdoing...
then why wouldn’t they keep him? He is just too good of a player to let get away and maybe this legal trouble will make teams shy away from him. Could really benefit us during negotiations next year.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 8, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
The Bucs may still rid themselves of Talib because of his image
Though if he’s found innocent, I see little reason to.
I've actually heard that if the lockout were lifted they would cut him.
He’s a hell of a player but does a lot of stupid shiete.
I'm not negative, I'm just telling you how it is.
He certainly could use a slap in the head
for being talented and so stupid in the same breathe.
((b-town))
I know the Tampa Tribune and St. Pete Times said so a couple months ago
But Pewter Report always said the opposite, and both those newspapers are now saying he likely won’t be cut.
If the Bucs are trying to thoroughly pasteurize their image...
a lot of heads will have to roll. This has been the off-season from hell around One Buccaneer Place. DUIs, weapons charges, drug arrests and underaged sex stings – a little something for everybody, eh?
Ugh…
by Cracker Ball on Jul 9, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
That was a pretty horrifying charge to get arrested for...
so that is not surprising. There’s still plenty of embarrassment to go around.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 9, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
It was rather sickening
But that guy was a salesman nothing with the team or coaching staff..
((b-town))
Oh. He meant THAT weapons charge....
For some reason when I saw weapons charge I was thinking Plaxico-style, or maybe that someone had been pulled over with an illegal piece in their car.
If you will it, dude, it is no dream.
Not afraid to go after a top tier guy
just being pragmatic. We’ve got to consider who we need to sign next year and the year after, and make sure the cap will be there for them as well. Being up against the cap wall was a huge reason we lost Lynch and Sapp when the time came. We didn’t have enough room under the cap and couldn’t restructure the contracts of other players. I’d hate to have an older Asomugha that we can’t restructure his contract get in the way of signing our own Mike Williams when the time comes. Or Legarrette Blount.
I agree 100%...
Don’t get me wrong, I love Nnamdi’s and would love to see him I pewter and red but signing him would hurt us a few years down the road when it’s time to resign some of the young guys we’ve developed. And besides, good cover corners are good to have but they don’t when you super bowls or even guarantee winning seasons. How many winning seasons have the Raiders had with Nnamdi? How many superbowls have the Jets won with Revis? How many superbowl rings does Camp Bailey have? Don’t get me wrong, good corners are very important but you can still have a good defense without them. As long as you have a good defensive scheme, can stop the run, and pressure the QB you have the makings of a very good defense. Let someone else over pay Nanmdi; the most important thing we can do in free agency is upgrade our O-line and then possibly bring in a solid CB as insurance just in case Goddel sits Talib down for a few games.
by ctd1977 on Jul 6, 2011 10:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We might need a DT as some have said.
If Price is put on pup, he’ll be out for a little. A little more invest in the Dline might make it pop?
((b-town))
Nah, I think the Bucs are fine with McCoy and Miller starting
And Okam and Al Woods looked to be decent fill-ins as well.
IMO we need to sign guys...
with high upfront money, that way we can attract good players now and not mortgage the Future.
There is always that possibility.
It’s no different paying all guaranteed money up front to a player than paying it over 5 years. It’s guaranteed, they’re gonna get it anyway, so if they’re gonna “lose motivation” because they already got the money, they’re gonna do that in year 1 or 2 just as likely as year 4 or 5. I think that may be a strategy for guys they’re “on the fence” about re-signing. If they want to re-sign Davin, but still aren’t sure he’s the answer, they may load up his contract this year and make the later years worth much less. Unfortunately, i don’t think that works with guys like Asomugha or Ruud. Aso can get boat loads of money in all years from other teams, and Ruud is already unhappy, looking for a long-term deal, and wants a deal that pays tons of money in each year (whether he gets that or not).
by Bruce McRae on Jul 18, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
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