Why the Buccaneers Will Suck In 2011
by Sander on May 22, 2011 4:00 PM EDT
in NFL Draft
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There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the future of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're a young team that won ten games last season, and were playing better football with many injured players at the end of the season than they were when healthy at the beginning of the season. They have a young quarterback who looked like a star. So why, then, the title of this blog post? Because none of this means they'll actually be successful.
The Buccaneers won ten games last season, but they did so against a weak schedule, beating only one team with a winning record. And that one team had nothing to play for when they were beaten. Worse yet, the Bucs only had a few convincing wins. Five of their wins were by a field goal or less. They weren't a very dominant team, even against weak opposition. And one of those wins - over the Redskins - came on a last-second missed extra point. So how often is that going to happen in the future?
Then there's the turnover margin. The Buccaneers turned the ball over just 19 times, while taking it away 28 times. That ranked 6th and 13th in the league. Their turnover differential of +9 ranked 8th in the league. They did that playing against some really poor quarterbacks, like Jimmy Clausen, Troy Smith, Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst and Cardinals QB. Keep in mind that turnovers are very inconsistent from season to season. Freeman won't throw five interceptions every year, and the Bucs aren't likely to force 28 turnovers every year either. Especially so if Aqib Talib is suspended or even cut.
The Bucs weren't all that good in certain phases of the game either. Their pass offense was decent, but Freeman was still completing just 61.4% of all passes. Legarrette Blount managed to squeak out some long runs, but he couldn't do much in short yardage and there were many negative runs to go with the positive. Kellen Winslow barely featured in the game plan early in the season, and who knows how long his knee is going to hold out.
Then turn to the defense. The run defense was still pathetic last season, and the Bucs will have up to three rookie starters in their front seven to fix it. That seems like a recipe for disaster. And how will the pass defense fare without star cornerback Aqib Talib? If the offense looked good last season, the defense sure didn't, and you need both to do well in the NFL.
And then there's the injuries. Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Arrelious Benn, Cody Grimm, Aqib Talib, Kareem Huggins and Davin Joseph are all rehabbing right now. Will they all be ready in time for the season? More importantly, will they actually retain their skills after their injury? Many players have come back from injuries, but have never gotten back to the level at which they used to play. Cadillac Williams is the most obvious example of that for Bucs fans.
Finally, this Bucs team is young and hence has a high ceiling. But the players also need to improve in a lot of different ways, and a full offseason would be crucial for that improvement to occur. With the lockout in place, though, there is no offseason, no training, no coaching. And the Buccaneers will need that coaching more than most teams.
So you tell me: will the Bucs really be better next season?
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No offense intended, but is this the same fella who’s research informed him Freeman was younger than Stafford?
While the Bucs are a young team, their schedule was not weak. This seems a bit like a fishing expedition trying to inflame the fans and nothing more.
I deliberately wrote this from another perspective than I usually do
It wasn’t meant to inflame anyone, but I thought it’d provide an interesting contrast with previous articles and show that there’s more than one way of looking at things.
And yes, their schedule was weak. I have no idea why you’d think otherwise, but they didn’t beat a good team until week 17 – when that team had nothing to play for. And yes, that’s a problem.
Wow Sander... get out of my head!
Just kidding… but I am happy to see a contrary position on this topic, as there is much “blind faith” (as one might expect find on a team blog) here and perhaps you can offer a reasonable and tempered alternative view in a way that I could not – at least not without being branded a heretic.
Fact 1: We did have an easy schedule. Many of the better teams we played were having some problems of their own, and the timing of these games may have had an impact on us sneaking away with a victory. The 2011 season will be much more difficult to go 10-6.
Fact 2: Missing out on the OTAs, etc. will slow the development of our young team. I hope it doesn’t, but the possibility is there. Losing momentum after a good, and unexpected, 10-6 season delays the ability to build upon what was started – much more than on a veteran team.
by Cracker Ball on May 22, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The good side, don't flame Sander
Ok, I was tempted to insult your intellegence when I some of this stuff, because as a Bucs fan I feel like some of it is off base. Luckily reading the first comment reminded me whose side you are on and how silly someone else looked when they were angry. Here it goes, The Bucs were in both games against the Falcons until their last drive of the game, and given Freeman’s clutch ability I was still confident in both. They also had a close game against Baltimore and an OT loss to… the Lions. Those are 3 quality games they played in a loss against good teams and one bad loss that many people point to as the game that kept the Bucs out of the playoffs. Also, the two DEs that will almost definately start on opening day for the Bucs have always been praised as intelligent hard workers. From someone who has been around football for a long time, DE isn’t exactly the hardest position to learn a new system at. Combine that with their work ethic and they should be good to go. Foster(I’m assuming it is him you are talking about), will probably take a little more time, but I think the longer the lockout is on, the better chance the Bucs try to resign a linebacker. The injuries could come out either way, but I have heard good things about most of those players(and Bowers’) progress. To tie it all together, I would say the sky is the limit for how good this Bucs D-line could be IF everything heals well. This said the(assumed) improved pass rush could create a lot more T.O.s if the Bucs can actually pressure the QB while rushing 4. I’m not naming the good QBs the Bucs played twice a year or making to big of a deal the Bucs said they would be more active in free agency. However, those could also be looked at as positives.
In general, I agree with you
I think there are a lot of positives about the team and a lot of reasons to be excited for the future. I think the weak schedule gets downplayed a little too much now, though, but so does the fact that they were much better at the end of the season than they were at the beginning, despite the injuries.
One thing that does really concern me is the missed time for the rookies and second-year players, though. That’s time they won’t be able to get back, but time they really need. Things can turn around quickly in the NFL. It wasn’t that long ago that people were screaming for Raheem’s head en-masse after a 3-13 season.
I'm realistic too
Yeah, I think the year after this will really be the one to raise the expectations in. I just had to try and put a positive spin on some of the stuff you said. I do think the Bucs will be better this year and the schedule is a bit soft at the end for a potential playoff run. The one thing I don’t really see anyone mentioning is that Freeman, as well as he played, doesn’t have much experience. He isn’t entirely proven after just one good season, and no one has seen how he will react to a playoff situation. That said I think he is a great quarterback with the potential to be the best in the NFL in a few years(when the likes of Manning and Brady have aged or retired and he has developed some more). I am forever the optimist
Weak schedule
Sagarin’s calculations suggest the Bucs had the 23rd ranked schedule in terms of difficulty. That’s not even in the bottom quartile. I think the ‘weakness’ has got a little too much play from analysts and “fans” who predicted the Bucs winning very few games. Our schedule was stronger than the Saints’ for heavens sake – do they get pummeled for having had a weak schedule?
The whole NFC South had a weak schedule last season
23rd is still well below average. I usually go by Football Outsiders, but the difference is minimal (they have them 25th).
The point being, they had a relatively easy schedule last year and will most likely have a harder schedule next year.
i can see your point in a lot of the things you've said, no training camp is horrible for our young guys and we are the youngest team in the league
this post is just realistic, we as fans sometimes blind ourselves but this is whats going on that is why the bucs must use and abuse free agency and bring a lot of veteran leadership to a few key positions.
Im going to start a list on why you’ll suck in 2011.. I’m starting with this article..
On a more serious note, the bucs tend to play up to the level of their opponents. hence them being there to the end with the likes of the falcons and as you pointed out with, the redskins. injuries aside there is no way they decline from last years success.. im sure the falcons would agree that the bucs arent going to be taken lightly as they held their breathes till the end both meetings this last season.
Also, the 2nd meeting against the saints should not be taken as a game with no meaning as the saints played their starters into the 4th quarter.. once they realized that carolina was done and atlanta took that game they took their players out.. by that point the bucs were still on top.
The main bad point about next season is...
The fact that these players aren’t getting coached up right now. They are a young team and these offseason programs are the time when these players improve and show something different. The lockout is hurting the Bucs more than any team in the NFL.
Hurts Carolina more
It hurts any team that plans to start a rookie quarterback more than it does the Bucs, no questions asked.
And teams with new coaching staffs
The Panthers are probably hurt more than any other team by this lockout.
Josh Freeman has the receiving weapons and ground game in place to help him flourish
The offensive line is still very much a work in progress, but if our defensive line can pressure opposing QBs, I can’t imagine many teams being thrilled about having to play us. It’s hard to predict anything with a lockout in place, of course, but we were within an eyelash of beating the No.1 seeded Falcons both times we played them, so I’ll take that as a major sign of encouragement.
I'm an optimist.
I plan on drafting as many Bucs as is reasonable in my fantasy football this year.
That said, if we don’t don’t match our win record from last year, that won’t mean this year is a failure. Progress isn’t necessarily refelcted in the wins/losses column.
If you will it, dude, it is no dream.
Try telling that to some rabid Bucs fans here...
as “we went 10-6, we went 10-6” seems to be the way most choose to measure the quality of our team. The 2011 schedule is MUCH harder than last season. We play CAR twice with DET, @SF, @TEN and @ JAX being the easiest. That leaves 10 quality opponents:
ATL, NO twice each, with @MIN, IND, CHI, HOU, @GB and DAL
There is no way we go 10-6 again. Lucky to be 7-9 when all the dust settles.
by Cracker Ball on May 23, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
You may be right..
But it’s not as if Dallas and Minnesota were power-houses last year. Also, I have to think we have the ability to at least split our games with ATL and NO (not that we definitely will, but we could…). And you never know which teams will inexplicably suck (like Dallas and Minnesota last year), could be Houston, Chicago or Indiana struggles mightily due to injuries or something.
On the flip side, Detroit could come out of the gates on fire and blow everyone away this year.
Point being, you never know. For what it’s worth, I hope you’re wrong, but if we regress rather than improve upon our win total… I still think we’ll be on the road to improvement….
If you will it, dude, it is no dream.
I definitely think we are improving...
but just not sure if that will translate into wins and losses, given the lack of coaching input during this off-season. I fully expect DAL and HOU to be much improved over last season and lay the wood to us. TEN, MIN and JAX could easily beat us as well. Not nearly as many “gimmie” games as last season.
I always seem to take the role of Devils Advocate here, but being conservative is my nature.
by Cracker Ball on May 26, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I would contest the Injury part next year.
Most teams get hit by the injury bug hard one year then less the next. I’d be more worried if we didn’t have many injuries last year.
Thanks for the different perspective, but....
Thanks Sander, its always best to look at both sides of the equation. However, let me counter a few points:
- Injuries: yes, it is unlikely that any team will repeat the winning performances in close games that we did last year. However, on the flip side, it is even more unlikely that we suffer the injuries like we did last year! We had 2 starters go down for 3 consecutive weeks!! What are the odds of that shit?!?!
- Schedule: Our schedule this year is not much tougher than last year. Our schedule last year BEFORE the games started looked a lot tougher, then the teams we thought may have been tough ended up blowing.
- Turnovers: Yes it is unlikely that Josh and co turn it over so few, but on the flip side, he now has another year with his o line and recievers which usually always results in a better O. Plus, our D will def put up more turnovers with our revamped d line. Hope talib is back.
Thoughts?
You make a few good points
Yes, I think the Bucs will be healthier next year, and mostly the rehab is going well for the players. And yes, the offense should be better next year. I’m not so sure about the defense, though, they had a pretty good pass defense last season, and I don’t know if they can keep that up.
But I don’t see the schedule being easy next year. We don’t play the NFC West and the Panthers should be better too.
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