The Year After Success


While Pat Yasinskas blew the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction for 2010, so did a lot of other people. The team had a remarkable turnaround from their 2009 season. A 7 win jump, actually. Yasinskas threw up an article recently that quoted Scott Smith's (Buccaneers.Com) research about 7 win teams in the following season.

History hasn’t been as kind to those teams. The 22 teams before the Bucs have gone a combined 168-166-3 (.503) and only the 1976 Baltimore Colts and 1998 New York Jets had better records in the season after their turnaround.

I don't care much about history in regards to predicting the future. Every team, every year has a different make-up. Using statistics like these doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is interesting. The Bucs became the 23rd team to have a 7 win jump or greater. Yasinskas does downplay the schedule a little bit. The Bucs had a comparatively 'easy' schedule, and SOS does make a difference in the success of teams. That's not to say that if the Bucs continue to improve, that they can't buck the trend. The teams youth has been well documented and that will play a part in their continued development. I won't begin to make predictions about the teams record next season, but it brings up an interesting discussion point.

To add to the very detailed research of Scott Smith, the 2010 Bucs were the youngest with an average age of 25.3 years old. This is compared to the 1975 Baltimore Colts with an average roster age of 25.8 and the 1997 New York Jets 26.2 average. The Bucs certainly have given themselves room to grow, which may bode well. The '76 Colts were unable to make it past the divisional round of the playoffs, however, the '98 Jets made it to the AFC Championship game; falling to the soon to be NFL Champion Denver Broncs

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