Progress: why strength of schedule doesn't absolve the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
by Sander on Nov 18, 2011 5:36 AM EST
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PrintIn the past two days there's been a lot of talk about the Bucs facing a tough schedule. That is absolutely true: by Football Outsiders' measures, the Bucs have had the toughest schedule of any team so far. Grantland's Bill Barnwell uses Pythagorean wins to come to a similar conclusion. That kind of argument works to explain the fact that the Bucs are sitting at 4-5 with three straight losses. It explains their record and the fact that they have seemingly lost their spot in the playoffs.
What it doesn't explain is their quality of play. The Bucs faced some elite opponents last year, and were blown out by two of them: the Steelers and Saints, both early in the year. In the second half of the season the Bucs' losses were all close affairs in which they had a good chance to win it, but things didn't go their way in key moments. That's fine: that happens, and the team showed it could hang with some very good teams in what was essentially year two of a rebuilding effort.
But that hasn't been the theme for the Bucs' losses this year. Two of their losses have been close affairs, but those losses against the Lions and Bears felt a lot worse than the scoreline made them look. The other three losses, though, have been blowouts, and that's inexcusable. The Bucs have lost games to the 49ers, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 28-112.
And that's the problem here: it isn't the fact that they've lost games, it's the fashion in which they've lost games. Most dispiriting was the loss against the Texans. Losing against that team is no great shame. Even letting that team run for a lot of yardage is no shame, as the Texans have a dominant running game. But getting blown out and having several players (Sean Jones...) show a consistent lack of effort is most certainly a problem.
An even bigger issue is the progress of individual players. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed for a variety of reasons, not least of which is the lackluster play of his wide receivers: another group of young players to have regressed. The linebackers, and Quincy Black in particular, seem to be playing at a lower level than last year. And the secondary has completely collapsed despite the return of supposed star safety Tanard Jackson.
The Bucs were the youngest team in the league last year, and they still are. When you commit to a rebuilding effort, you're going to see inconsistent play - that's part of the NFL. But what you're really looking for from week to week is progression. Young players have a lot to learn, but they need to show that they're learning to play like professionals.
The Bucs aren't doing that. They're not just losing games, they're getting blown out and the players are showing no signs of improvement. That's the real problem.
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Full understanding is a combination of factors
Yes, the schedule is more difficult, so there will probably be more losses due to that. But understanding why we’re getting blown out or looking bad during games has to factor in the off-season (or lack of one). Sure, other teams also faced the same challenge of no off-season. But other teams aren’t as young as this team is and in need of as much coaching as these guys still do. Last year they had the off-season to work with the coaches, and unlimited padded practices at the coaches disposal to work on fundamentals. This year, they had no work with coaches and very few padded practices in which they can work on things like tackling and blocking (shedding blocks). No pads means no real work on those things. They can’t even hit tackling dummies in no pads.
Yes, other teams are dealing with this too. Some are affected in much the same way we are, it just doesn’t show as much because they weren’t as promising as the Bucs last year and/or their schedule is weaker so they aren’t “exposed” as much. Some coaching staffs simplified offenses or defenses for new players coming in to ease the adjustment with minimal work and it’s working for them. Our staff had mostly the same group coming back and stuck with what we did last year. That should be fine except we couldn’t work on it in the off-season and we had young guys that weren’t proficient at everything in the first place.
The combination of schedule, off-season/practices, and youth have all contributed to a team that has regressed this year. Does that mean they aren’t as good as we’d hoped after last year? Not necessarily, but it does mean they NEED the coaching much more than some other teams at this point.
Please.
Enough with the young excuses. That is the direction the front office chose to go. If they didn’t realize risk was involved with that then they are idiots. It’s also not about the fundamentals of tackling. Get real dude. These men are in the NFL. They have been proficient tacklers since high school to make it this far. The reason tackles aren’t being made isn’t because of coaching technique. It’s because there is a distinct lack of effort. It has nothing to with pads on in practice or tackling dummies in my opinion.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
Why didn't everybody see this coming? Der...
That long-winded post above basically says – we suck.
And we do. Freeman pulled some cardiac wins out of his magical b*tt last year, but we weren’t nearly as good as our record. We have simply fallen back to earth – with basically the exact same team. Which is part of our problem here. It literally IS the same exact team. We chose to basically sit still (punter – Yay!) and did not improve ourselves at all. Other up and coming teams like say… DET, went out and signed some folks. DET beat us last year, and they beat us again this year. So, DET>TB.
Rah and Olson need to go… maybe Dom as well. I think we should hire Marty Mornhinweg, the current PHI OC, as our new HC and preface that by saying that we will we stay a 4-3 on DEF. Then we can lure WR DeSean Jackson here and maybe MAYBE offer Rah the DC position (if the Glazers are still in love with him). I would personally look elsewhere, but they COULD save a little face by simply admitting he was not ready to be a HC.
Thoughts?
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
There are plenty of NFL players who can't tackle.
If they’re good enough at something else, they might even last 2-3 years before the team can find someone who can tackle.
No slogans. Just win!!!
Lack of effort when tackling really pisses me off.
These guys are supposed professionals and they are playing like amateurs..
They have no more excuses this year. I am tired of hearing excuses…. Just play some freaking football.
Get ready for a butt kicking by the Packers people.
East Coast Fan
by Bucfan on Nov 18, 2011 10:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Half of the players in the NFL can't tackle
They play offense. Teams may draft a project guy here and there, but for the most part these players are phenomenal tacklers and have complete games. That is how they distinguished themselves in college. They wouldn’t make an NFL roster if they can’t tackle.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
The schedule may be more difficult, but we are supposed to be a better team with few additions and subtractions from the 2010 team.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Don't forget the extra $30M we are paying last years team to suck it up this year.
$30M is a guesstimate, but Dominik essentially turned a $50M payroll into an $80M payroll and only signed a punter and the draft picks. I’m just throwing those numbers out there and don’t actually feel like looking them up, but you know what I mean.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
That amazing feat is why Dom needs the boot too...
Just because you pay $5.00 for an apple doesn’t make it taste better – it just makes you stupid.
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Fine... then make him your Director of College Scouting
if you love him so much, but he s*cks donkey at signing F/As. We are the same team as last year. Still bad and now unlucky. You can’t judge Doms drafting ability because they simply keep them and don’t bring in better players to compete for the starting spots. They just hand the spots to these “6-out-of-10” grade players and that’s it. For example, you sign a Jonathan Joseph and he steals a starting CB spot. Same could be said for Antonio Cromartie, Eric Wright, Carlos Rogers, Chris Carr, etc.
You sign a Stephen Tulloch, Paul Posluzsny, Kirk Morrison or Ernie Sims and do the exact same thing at the LB position. If you don’t really try to upgrade, its real easy to keep your draft picks here. Bad argument for improving your team.
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
It has nothing to do with who's starting
But how they’ve played and what they’ve shown. Last year’s play doesn’t just disappear because the team is playing at a lower level this year. The talent they showed last year didn’t just disappear into thin air.
No... just the luck we had
in beating up on the nerdy kids. Do you actually think we could beat CIN, DET, SF, SEA, WAS, CLE, ARI or any other of the 2010 “softies” we played?
I think we lose to basically all of them right now.
Our “talent” level has been misjudged, and your Rah/Dom combo are the ones that did it. Possibly the greatest F/A off-season in history and we sign a punter?
You’re unsuccessfully defending the indefensible.
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Quality of play can be evaluated separately from the record
Also, to suggest that the Bucs would surely lose to Seattle, Washington, Cleveland or Arizona this year is nothing more than hyperbole.
Performances against others teams...
can also occasionally provide a good measuring stick. Example:
2010 – TB@SF we win 21-0 2011 – TB@SF we lose 48-3
Both teams basically maintain the same personnel in both seasons. Were we really THAT good then? Or now REALLY that bad?
I suggest that we were not all that good last year – in that particular game AND the 2010 season as a whole. This season, I suggest that we are not that bad, but have been exposed. Our lack of talent, lack of solid coaching and inability to adjust suggests we are not that good. On several fronts. We will also be picking 10th or so in the upcoming draft – again, a fair indicator that we are not really very good.
Keep your cheerleading up Sander, as you are the voice of this blog now and must appease the masses. I am not, and will never be, and therefore can speak freely, accurately and unencumbered by the need for validation.
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
You must not actually read what I've been writing on this blog if you think I'm "cheerleading"
Anyway, the Bucs were not a real 10-6 team last year (and I never suggested they were). I expected them to develop the young talent a little and take the next step to being a real 9-7 team (my offseason prediction). It looks like they haven’t been able to do that, and some players have regressed (or are having slumps). That’s a real problem.
But you weren’t saying the Bucs aren’t that bad this year just a couple of comments ago. You were comparing them to the ‘09 Bucs. That’s what I take issue with, not with anything you said in this comment.
I also disagree with you that free agency is a magical fix, but I did say throughout the offseason that the Bucs had an opportunity to add good young talent. And then they failed to do it.
Magic is not required here...
But an influx of better talent IS. Signing SELECT young but proven F/As in certain positions gets you there much much quicker. Dom is basically useless at this – and I propose that if this WERE done as it should have been, many of Doms draft picks would be long gone, making his draft “success” much more suspect.
He has said, on more than one occasion, that the Glazers have not hamstrung regarding the spending of money or the signing of players. By saying that, the failure to do so, and provide us with a quality team to watch on Sunday, is entirely HIS fault.
I also said STATISTICALLY the Bucs are not much different than they were in 2009 – which is true. Especially so on DEF, and also on Special Teams, the often overlooked 3rd segment of a team. This is what is killing SD, for example.
You say that certain players have regressed, or are in a slump, but I say they were never really that good to begin with. Guys like Quincy Black, Geno Hayes, most of our DB (sans Talib) were all suspect but Rah/Dom cling to them. Don’t get it. The reason they are still here MAY be that our acquisitions through undrafted F/As and cast-off practice squad players is to blame. Open the wallet and sign an Eric Wright or Carlos Rogers. Open it up again and sign a Stephen Tulloch and/or Paul Posluzsny.
Then you have fixed your D.
The “bargain bin” trash-digging philosophy is to blame here, and Doms finger prints are all over that.
by Cracker Ball on Nov 18, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think (and continue to think) that that is a viable way to build a good football team
But you and I have disagreed on that point for ages. No point in going back over it.
Also the Bucs have been very good on special teams. That is indeed very 2009-like.
I say keep dom for now.
The true test of our draft picks is generally 3 to 4 years after said player was drafted, that is generally a good indicator and barometer. It is too early to say either way on some of our picks.
However, I also believe that it is possible that the glazers may have hamstrung dom ad well. Meaning that he may not be allowed to hit FA’s agressively. Dont know this, but it is possible.
East Coast Fan
by Bucfan on Nov 18, 2011 10:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bears and Lions scores may have been close
but if not for some heroics in the 4th quarter those were blowouts too. And with some of our wins – Vikes and Colts – we needed those heroics to pull out wins against terrible teams.
The quality of play this year is very, very bad – win or lose.
Yugly.
No excuses!
Tebow and the Broncos just beat the Jets. They did it because they make zero excuses.
I wish our team would adopt the same mentality.
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Nov 18, 2011 8:39 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I wish our QB could rush for a Century
by GoBuxGo on Nov 18, 2011 10:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If the Bucs offense had managed a total of 10 points and 229 yards on the Jets defense, you'd be pissed
And rightly so.
Not if it was good enough win.
Look at the last two drafts and and see which franchises #3 pick has panned out. Von Miller has 8+ sacks in his rookie year, and McCoy has a mere 8 games played lol.
I would be ecstatic to see our O put up those kinds of #‘s and we’d still win. That means the high draft picks on defense Tampa’s lost their identity (Defensive unit).
IMO, Tebow is like a hybrid of Peyton Hillis and Mike Vick, and he has a great Head on his shoulders. I hope he brings them back to win the AFC west.
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Nov 18, 2011 12:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah lol, chargers can't win with double that
Now thats an anomaly, that may provide structure to the argument of Tebow winning.
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Nov 18, 2011 12:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It provides structure to the idea that the Broncos defense is playing some good football against weak offenses
And that the Broncos offense is playing bad football. Tebow is responsible for the offense, not the defense.
He is also clutch. He makes te most of his opportunity to win a football game.
He can work on being a better thrower in the offseason, but bottom line is this kid is a winner and good enough to win games with his feet and mind right now.
by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Nov 18, 2011 1:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Freeman is 'clutch' too
I’d much rather have a QB that can consistently put up points, rather than someone that can only construct one drive per game, late.
Tebow’s worked on being a better thrower for years. He is what he is. That’s not going to change.
I don’t believe in people just being ‘winners’. Plenty of QBs who were ‘winners’ in college have failed miserably in the NFL because they simply don’t have the quality to play the position. You can have all the intangibles you want, but if you can’t play it’s absolutely pointless.
Angels on the goalposts?
You mean if you can’t play in the traditional sense of being a competent passer which Tebow clearly isn’t, right? I get a kick out of all you football “experts” ( I say that in an admiring way because I’m not) who put down Tebow’s style and predict his imminent failure yet he wins not through QB competency but sheer willpower. Josh had that same thing going last year but it ain’t happening this year. As a matter of fact, your first sentence could be a description of Freeman. Sometimes winning occurs not just because of one’s individual qualities but the added element of providence. Tebow has the intangibles and can’t QB in the traditional sense but ask the Jets how absolutely ‘pointless’ he was in that last drive.
One drive doesn't negate 3.5 quarters of poor play
It didn’t with Freeman last year either. Being able to perform in the clutch is a very good quality for a QB, but if you can’t get up for the other three quarters you turn into, well, the Bucs this year.
Yes, but
Who ultimately got the W. I ‘d say last night’s last drive pretty much negated the effect of Tim’s inability to hit the broad side of barn. I’m not sure Tebow can’t develop into better passer though. At UF he didn’t have to because of his ability to run the ball. Why would Meyer attempt to turn him into a passer considering the success he brought that program? All I’m saying is with all your coventional wisdom ( and I truly think you are a brilliant Bucs observer) being true, sometimes a kid comes along who has intangibles that turn conventional wisdom upside down.
If Tebow can develop into a better passer I'll buy into it
But he’s worked on it for years on end, and hasn’t really made any kind of improvement. Even at Florida there were stories about changing his throwing motion during the offseason.
I think Tebow does bring a lot to the table. But I also am convinced that for long-term success, you need to be able to pass the ball in the NFL. I don’t mind the option scheme or the running (although that might get him killed in the long term), and I think if Tebow was a better passer he could indeed be a very good QB. But at some point this is going to catch up to him, unless he improves.
And Freeman has the ability to consistently throw the football accurately
He’s not exactly doing that right now, but he was last year. You cannot play quarterback in the NFL at a high level consistently without the ability to throw an accurate football. Tebow can’t do that, that’s why he will fail. If he had, say, Cam Newton’s arm and accuracy he’d be spectacular. Instead, he’s an inaccurate and weak-armed version of Byron Leftwich throwing the football.
Leadership
is an intangible that’s impossible to coach. I’d like to be able to bottle Tebow’s sense of “can do” and inject it into some of our players. Your absolutely right as a passer Tebow stinks. But, his “charisma” (for lack of a better word) seems to rally his team. In the aftergame interview with the NFL Network analysts he had a childlike innocence that was hard not to admire. What does Morris like to say, ‘before you achieve it you have to believe it’? It’s clear Tebow still believes in miracles.
The problem with the Bucs isn't their tough schedule this year.
It was their easy schedule last year. It raised expectations too high after those 10 wins.
No slogans. Just win!!!
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