Crystal Balls and Calculators: Projecting the 2010 Season
by LeeCaz on Aug 27, 2010 8:01 AM EDT
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Call it what you will; soothsayer, psychic, oracle, clairvoyant, auger, seer. Bust out your tea leaves and crystal balls, because I've got an assignment for you Buc fans. I finally got around to playing Madden last night, and as I was setting up my franchise and playing my first couple of games, I started trying to predict how each individual member of our beloved Buccaneers would do throughout the season. It gave me an idea for a great new contest to offer to our readers. I have composed a list of random stats that interest me from different players on this team, as well as a few random other things from across the NFL. I will try to predict the total for this season. When applicable, I will also list the total from last season. For example:
Object of Prediction 2009 Total My prediction for 2010
Stylez White sacks 6.5 8.5
Just copy and paste the table into the comments section and change my prediction into your prediction. At the end of the season we'll see who has the most right predictions. I'll try to come up with a cool prize, something like letting you buy me a ticket to the home opener next year and attending the game with me (I'll throw in for the beer). Now, considering the fact that this is almost impossible, I obviously don't expect anyone to get a lot of these right. I just thought it would be a fun way to gear up for the season and set some expectations for our own personal expectations for our 2010 squad. Each correct answer will be worth 1 point. Good luck ladies and gents. Let's see how many of you can beat me.
Come throw down the gauntlet after the jump.
Note: All yardage predictions should be made in increments of 25 please. I also would like to apologize for the fact that the numbers are not aligned correctly. They were all tabbed perfectly when I typed this up, but somehow the translation to the front page screwed it all up. I guess I could set up a table, but it's already two in the morning and all this psychic energy is really tiring me out. I did go ahead and block quote every other one in the hopes it would make it easier to follow. I also wanted to give a special thanks to profootball-reference.com for their great site. All of the numbers quoted from 2009 were pulled from their site.
Object of Prediction: 2009 Total: My Prediction:
Total Team Wins 3 6
Total Division Wins 1 2
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 10 21
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 18 25
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 20 33
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 823 1050
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 7 12
Mike Williams Total Receptions: N/A 63
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: N/A 875
Mike Williams Total TD: N/A 8
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: N/A 21
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: N/A 275
Arrelious Benn Total TD: N/A 2
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 77 82
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 884 925
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 5 8
Total Offensive TD Scored: 23 30
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 2 2
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: N/A 3
Brian Price Sacks: N/A 3
Stylez G. White Sacks: 6.5 8.5
Kyle Moore Sacks: 0 7
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 143 121
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 98 101
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 75 88
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 5 8
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 0 3
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5 6
Sean Jones Interceptions: 2 (With Philadelphia) 4
Total Team Sacks: 28 33
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 44 36
Random Stuff
Buccaneers Named to Pro Bowl: 0 2
Players Named to Pro Bowl: N/A Aqib Talib, Donald Penn
Object of Prediction: My Prediction:
NFC South Division Winner: New Orleans
NFC West Division Winner: Seattle
NFC East Division Winner: Dallas
NFC North Division Winner: Green Bay
AFC East Division Winner: New England
AFC North Division Winner: Baltimore
AFC West Division Winner: Denver
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis
AFC Wild Card Team 1: NYJ
AFC Wild Card Team 2: Tennessee
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Atlanta
NFC Wild Card Team 2: Minnesota
AFC Champion: Baltimore
NFC Champion: Green Bay
Super Bowl Champion: Green Bay
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Freeman is approaching Jay Cutler territory with those picks
I think the Colts are going to win the super bowl this year, as this looks like a down year for the rest of the league. The Chargers/Jets/Pats have major issues, and Manning is just flat out amazing.
I hope Green Bay gets there.
That would be a SuperBowl worth watching. Manning vs. Rodgers. I can only imagine the possibilities.
Josh Freeman will be better than Matt Ryan, not so sure about Drew Brees!!
Predictions
Object of Prediction: 2009 Total: My Prediction:
Total Team Wins 3 7
Total Division Wins 1 3
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 10 21
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 18 16
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 20 26
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 823 1136
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 7 14
Mike Williams Total Receptions: N/A 59
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: N/A 796
Mike Williams Total TD: N/A 6
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: N/A 30
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: N/A 416
Arrelious Benn Total TD: N/A 1
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 77 78
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 884 901
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 5 7
Total Offensive TD Scored: 23 39
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 2 3
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: N/A 2
Brian Price Sacks: N/A 4
Stylez G. White Sacks: 6.5 9
Kyle Moore Sacks: 0 6
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 143 156
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 98 103
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 75 74
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 5 8
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 0 2
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5 7
Sean Jones Interceptions: 2 (With Philadelphia) 3
Total Team Sacks: 28 30
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 44 31
Random Stuff
Buccaneers Named to Pro Bowl: 0 4
Players Named to Pro Bowl: N/A Aqib Talib, Donald Penn, Winslow (Reserve), Caddy (Reserve)
Object of Prediction: My Prediction:
NFC South Division Winner: New Orleans
NFC West Division Winner: San Fransisco
NFC East Division Winner: Dallas
NFC North Division Winner: Green Bay
AFC East Division Winner: New York Jets
AFC North Division Winner: Baltimore
AFC West Division Winner: San Diego
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis
AFC Wild Card Team 1: Miami
AFC Wild Card Team 2: New England
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Minnesota
NFC Wild Card Team 2: Washington
AFC Champion: Baltimore
NFC Champion: New Orleans
Super Bowl Champion: Baltimore
SCREW YOU!!!
Just and idea
If our defense is at all better, they shouldnt have to tackle more (linebackers) there should be more turnovers (ints, fumbles, 3 and outs) that will limit the need or opportunities for so many tackles. Hopefully anyway.
Josh Freeman will be better than Matt Ryan, not so sure about Drew Brees!!
I can't see Kellen's reception totals climbing
K2 got fed the ball a lot the past season, with more options that should change.
More options?
I figured that Winslow will get even more targets this season. Freeman will rely on him just as much, and the fact that he will hopefully be playing all 16 games prompted me to guess more. I don’t think a rookie wide receiver and Reggie Brown are going to take that many targets away from Freeman
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
by LeeCaz on Aug 28, 2010 1:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What?
Kellen played all 16 games last year, so the amount of plays he’s in isn’t about to change. Looking at his injury history it’s actually unlikely he’ll play all 16 games again, so that should just downgrade his options.
Besides that, Freeman will hopefully have learned how to go through his progressions more, and that will lead to the ball being spread around more, not less.
Freeman will play in all 16 games
I know how many Winslow played in
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
by LeeCaz on Aug 28, 2010 1:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Winslow caught 4.4 balls/game in the games without Freeman starting
5.1 in the games with Freeman starting. That’s a difference of .5 balls/game over that 7 game span, so that’s a total of 4 more receptions for K2.
And that’s assuming he stays healthy and that Freeman’s going to rely on him more than the past season, neither of which I think is likely to happen.
Thats actually a difference of .7 which for 7 games is 4.9
77 + 5 = 82. Not really sure what your issue is, but feel free to make your own predictions instead of telling me why you think mine are wrong. We will see who is more right at the end of the season.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
by LeeCaz on Aug 28, 2010 3:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Very solid Bucs predictions
Hawks takin the NFC West? Going against the grain, I like it!
Really?
I think it’s pretty accurate. Upgrade with Sean Jones. Missed TJack for 4 games last season. Upgrade at Nickel and Dime. Aqib is a year better and Ronder returns to the T2, which is an ‘opportunistic’ D. 6 more picks (19 last season) is incredibly achievable.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Not to mention a 'better' pass rush
if our DT’s can upgrade that position at all and a more aggressive blitz scheme that what Jim Bates liked to ran.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
I think he was referring to Freeman's interceptions
but I agree with your point NOLE. As far as the picks for JFree go, I don’t think its too high considering he was on pace for 36 last year, and only threw 8 passes in the preseason this year.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
by LeeCaz on Aug 28, 2010 1:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ah, right.
25 is fairly accurate still.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Though I wouldn't be shocked to see it lower.
It’s just so hard to determine what we will get out of Freeman this year.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Ok, Here we go:
Total Team Wins 3 7
Total Division Wins 1 3
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 10 21
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 18 15
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 20 35
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 823 925
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 7 10
Mike Williams Total Receptions: N/A 71
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: N/A 954
Mike Williams Total TD: N/A 5
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: N/A 30
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: N/A 310
Arrelious Benn Total TD: N/A 2 (agreed)
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 77 75
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 884 910
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 5 5
Total Offensive TD Scored: 23 27
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 2 4
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: N/A 5
Brian Price Sacks: N/A 2
Stylez G. White Sacks: 6.5 9
Kyle Moore Sacks: 0 6
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 143 121
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 98 122
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 75 92
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 5 7
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 0 2
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5 8
Sean Jones Interceptions: 2 (With Philadelphia) 3
Total Team Sacks: 28 35
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 44 32
Random Stuff
Buccaneers Named to Pro Bowl: 0 3
Players Named to Pro Bowl: N/A Aqib Talib, Davin Joseph, Cadillac
Williams
Object of Prediction: My Prediction:
NFC South Division Winner: NAWLEANS (Agreed)
NFC West Division Winner: Seattle (Agreed)
NFC East Division Winner: NY GIANTS
NFC North Division Winner: Green Bay (Agreed)
AFC East Division Winner: NY JETS
AFC North Division Winner: Baltimore (Agreed)
AFC West Division Winner: San Diego
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis (Agreed)
AFC Wild Card Team 1: N.E. Patriots
AFC Wild Card Team 2: Oakland (Yes, Quote Me on this)
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Atlanta (Agreed)
NFC Wild Card Team 2: Minnesota (Agreed)
AFC Champion: NY JETS
NFC Champion: Green Bay (Agreed)
Super Bowl Champion: NY JETS
So you can keep knocking but won't knock me down
No love lost, no love found
A Slight Increase in Production on both sides... besides Ruud
Object of Prediction: 2009 Total: My Prediction:
Total Team Wins 3 – 8
Total Division Wins 1 5
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 10 24
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 18 16
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 20 30
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 823 1075
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 7 16
Mike Williams Total Receptions: N/A 62
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: N/A 900
Mike Williams Total TD: N/A 10
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: N/A 35
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: N/A 350
Arrelious Benn Total TD: N/A 4
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 77 82
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 884 950
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 5 8
Total Offensive TD Scored: 23 36
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 2 3
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: N/A 4
Brian Price Sacks: N/A 2
Stylez G. White Sacks: 6.5 8
Kyle Moore Sacks: 0 5
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 143 140
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 98 120
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 75 100
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 5 8
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 0 0
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5 8
Sean Jones Interceptions: 2 (With Philadelphia) 4
Total Team Sacks: 28 35
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 44 30
Random Stuff
Wow, that's Um Positive.
So you can keep knocking but won't knock me down
No love lost, no love found
I didn't get past 8 wins. With all do respect.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
If they manage 5 wins in the division
then they are going 11-15 lol
Good predictions LeeCaz, but mine are better :P
Object of Prediction: 2009 Total: My Prediction:
Total Team Wins 3 7
Total Division Wins 1 3
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 10 23
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 18 20
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 20 30
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 823 975
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 7 9
Mike Williams Total Receptions: N/A 70
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: N/A 800
Mike Williams Total TD: N/A 7
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: N/A 30
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: N/A 350
Arrelious Benn Total TD: N/A 3
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 77 70
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 884 800
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 5 7
Total Offensive TD Scored: 23 32
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 2 3
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: N/A 4
Brian Price Sacks: N/A 3
Stylez G. White Sacks: 6.5 7
Kyle Moore Sacks: 0 4
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 143 115
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 98 110
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 75 85
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 5 7
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 0 2
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5 8
Sean Jones Interceptions: 2 (With Philadelphia) 4
Total Team Sacks: 28 38
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 44 35
Random Stuff
Buccaneers Named to Pro Bowl: 0 3
Players Named to Pro Bowl: N/A Aqib Talib, Donald Penn, Tanard Jackson
Object of Prediction: My Prediction:
NFC South Division Winner: New Orleans
NFC West Division Winner: 49ers
NFC East Division Winner: Philly
NFC North Division Winner: Green Bay
AFC East Division Winner: New York
AFC North Division Winner: Baltimore
AFC West Division Winner: Oakland
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis
AFC Wild Card Team 1: Cincinnati
AFC Wild Card Team 2: Tennessee
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Atlanta
NFC Wild Card Team 2: Minnesota
AFC Champion: Indianapolis
NFC Champion: Green Bay
Super Bowl Champion: Green Bay
"You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four."
-Dan Birdwell
I like the oakland pick
I am a huge Michael Bush fan and am pulling for him to do well now that he is finally getting his shot.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
by LeeCaz on Aug 28, 2010 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Speaking of Oakland RB's....
I feel sorry for Darren Mcfadden and his career…
"You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four."
-Dan Birdwell
My thinking on the upcoming season game by game
Individual statistics I can live without, as long as Freeman’s TD count is double the INT count. ;-)
In terms of the Bucs’ overall season…
vs. Cleveland – best chance for a win? The Browns are in a serious rebuilding mode and could be in worse shape than the Bucs. W
at Carolina – tough game. Blood feud rivalry. The Panthers are overrated IMHO but they will be up and fighting for this one. L
vs. Pittsburgh – the one advantage the Bucs have is that Big Ben is Busted this game. Problem is, that Pittsburgh D is going to give our offense too many headaches. L
Bye
at Cincinnati – one of the hardest teams to figure out. On paper they look great with all that talent. But in terms of luck… well… I’m just of the opinion the Bucs are still training the rookies they’ll have as starters. L
vs. New Orleans – they will be coming to OUR HOUSE! We GOTTA DEFEND OUR HOUSE! (Brees racks up 400 yds passing and 8 TDs). We GOTTA DEFEND OUR LAWN SHED!… L
vs. St Louis – another rebuilding team, and one with a faded rivalry with the Bucs. After the shellacking by the Saints last week, the Bucs ought to view this as a rebounder. W
at Arizona – will Leinert replace Warner? will Arizona’s D be fixed? will the state get collectively head-slapped and come to their senses that SB 1040 is the wrong kind of immigration enforcement? Oh, sorry. Bucs could win this one, but it’s tricky. W
at Atlanta – given the dynamics of the NFC South, this could be the Falcons year. Underrated in the way Carolina is overrated. This could be a nasty blowout. L
vs Carolina – given the blood feud, I’d love to see this be a Win game for the Bucs. There’s a good chance by this time of the season that our defensive front – the raw rookies – are getting the program and stepping up. W
at San Francisco – the Bucs traditionally don’t do well on the West Coast. the 49ers have been a team on the verge for years, and this could be their season. Also I felt they had a decent off-season. L
at Baltimore – the big questions will be: is Baltimore as good on the field as they are on paper? and, how bloody will it get on the field? L
vs. Atlanta – there’s always a chance the Bucs can catch the Falcons on an off-day, especially with them visiting the Ray Jay. But it depends on which team is more banged up by this point. L
at Washington – every year you think the Redskins would get out of their snide. Every year the team falls apart. It might be different this year with a coach who knows what he’s doing… but the pieces they’ve put together, the veterans and the egos… I dunno. W
vs. Detroit – you know, someday the Lions will be actually a good team. Just not this year. W
vs. Seattle – this was a team that had a wild off-season and a decent rookie draft. But I just get the feeling that by this time of year both the Bucs and the Seahawks are playing for pride. W
at New Orleans – this game depends on one big factor: Is New Orleans in a playoff fight with Atlanta? If the Saints already clinched a division title, and better still if they clinched home-field, they’ll likely rest their starters. Odds are, they’re in a playoff fight, so the Bucs are toast. L
so my count is
7 Wins 9 Losses. Wait, lemme double-count. Okay, I count 9 Ls.
Witty's 2010 Draft review is full of meaty goodness. What you mean, you're vegan?! Sigh. Just read it.
Total Team Wins 6
Total Division Wins 2
Offense
Josh Freeman Total TD (includes rush) 24
Josh Freeman Total Interceptions: 22
Josh Freeman Total Sacks: 32
Cadillac Williams Rushing yards: 950
Cadillac Williams Total TD: 8
Mike Williams Total Receptions: 50
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: 600
Mike Williams Total TD: 5
Arrelious Benn Total Receptions: 30
Arrelious Benn Receiving Yards: 400
Arrelious Benn Total TD: 3
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total Receptions: 40
Kellen Winslow Jr. Receiving Yards: 500
Kellen Winslow Jr. Total TD: 3
Total Offensive TD Scored: 28
Total Special Teams TD Scored: 3
Defense
Gerald McCoy Sacks: 4
Brian Price Sacks: 2
Stylez G. White Sacks: 9
Kyle Moore Sacks: 2
Barrett Ruud Total Tackles: 130
Geno Hayes Total Tackles: 111
Quincy Black Total Tackles: 95
Aqib Talib Interceptions: 6
Ronde Barber Interceptions: 1
Tanard Jackson Interceptions: 5
Sean Jones Interceptions: 3
Total Team Sacks: 30
Total Team Touchdowns Allowed: 38
Random Stuff
Buccaneers Named to Pro Bowl: 1
Players Named to Pro Bowl: Aqib Talib
NFC South Division Winner: New Orleans
NFC West Division Winner: San Francisco
NFC East Division Winner: Philadelphia
NFC North Division Winner: Green Bay
AFC East Division Winner: Miami
AFC North Division Winner: Baltimore
AFC West Division Winner: Oakland
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis
AFC Wild Card Team 1: New England
AFC Wild Card Team 2: Houston
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Minnesota
NFC Wild Card Team 2: Dallas
AFC Champion: Baltimore
NFC Champion: Green Bay
Super Bowl Champion: Green Bay
Green Bay is a popular pick....
I have done all my other predictions a while ago so I will just do the playoff predicts.
NFC South Division Winner: Atlanta
NFC West Division Winner: San Francisco
NFC East Division Winner: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North Division Winner: Minnesota
AFC East Division Winner: New York Jets
AFC North Division Winner: Cincinnati
AFC West Division Winner: Denver
AFC South Division Winner: Indianapolis
AFC Wild Card Team 1: New England Patriots
AFC Wild Card Team 2: Baltimore Ravens
NFC Wild Card Team 1: Green Bay Packers
NFC Wild Card Team 2: New Orleans Saints
AFC Champion: New York Jets
NFC Champion: Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Champion: New York Jets
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Yeah, I was a bit torn on Green Bay
I don’t know if their defense’ll hold up that well this year, but couldn’t think of any other team that I’d think would be likely to win it all.
They had one of the best defenses in the NFL last year.
You get 75% of that your in OK shape. That division, along with the NFC West are def. up for grabs though.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Well, their defense didn't play like it was the best in the playoffs
And they lost Johnny Jolly, too.
Predictions
My Predictions,
Bucs don’t make the playoffs,
win 2 games.
Bad year,
coach finally gets fired in mid season.
Bucs and Jags the new Detroit and St Louis.
Cracker Ball- is that you?
So you can keep knocking but won't knock me down
No love lost, no love found
More like a troll.
If an optimist had his left arm chewed off by an alligator, he might say in a pleasant and hopeful voice, "Well this isn't to bad, I don't have a left arm anymore but at least nobody will ever ask me if I'm left-handed or right-handed" but most of us would say something more along the lines of "Aaaaaa! My arm! My arm!" DANIEL HANDLER (as Lemony Snicket)
Actually... no.
Mainly because I said we would win 4 games – not 2.
DET, STL, SEA and CAR at home.
But we lose to CLE in the opener.
by Cracker Ball on Aug 31, 2010 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions
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