Now, it's time. It's time to throw your prediction down on paper. How confident are you in the years Buccaneers? Well, a better way to measure this probably isn't just saying 6-10 or 10-6. Rather, by a method I first learned about at TomahawkNation. The goal is to see how confident you are in each game, and then coming up with a winning % based off your confidence. Here is why this method is likely more effective in predicting a teams record (It's also what professional gamblers use).
Bud Elliot explained this much better than I will be able to in the link posted above. So, before we get into it, it is imperative that you read through the whole story, however, here is a good chunk of it:
It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. He has a day job, but he makes his living betting sports like a day trader plays the stock market, complete with a healthy dose of arbitrage. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it proportional win shares. You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), of that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).
Now, you might be thinking, "how do you project a team's winning percentage?" This chart can help:
Point Spread Money Line -2 -120/+120 -2.5 -130/+130 -3 -145/+145 -3.5 -175/+175 -4 -185/+185 -4.5 -200/+200 -5/-5.5 -215/+215 -6 -240/+240 -6.5 -260/+260 -7 -290/+290 -7.5/-8/-8.5 -330/+330 -9/-9.5 -350/+350 -10 -385/+385 -10.5 -415/+415 -11 -445/+445 -11.5 -475/+475 -12/ -12.5
-500/+500 -13 -525/+525 -13.5 -550/+550 -14 -580/+580 -14.5 -610/+610 -15/ 15.5 -640/+640 -16/16.5 -665/+665 -17 -690/+690 -17.5
-715/+715 -18/ -18.5/ -19/ -19.5 -740/+740 -20 -770/+770 -20.5 -800/+800 -21 -815/+815 -21.5 -830/+830 -23 -845/+845 -24 -875/+875 -28
You might be a bit lost right now, but that's okay. Here's the idea. A 3 point underdog, has a moneyline value of "+145". In numerical terms, that comes out to 245, because you add 100. Still with me? If not, it's okay. Keep following. To determine a team's projected winning percentage, based on the vegas line, simply take the moneyline value in numerical terms, and divide it into one.
- Team A is favored over Team B by 3 points.
- Thus, Team B is an underdog of 3 points.
- Team B can be referred to as +3
- Using the chart above, we can see that an underdog of +3 is "+145" moneyline value.
- Remember to add 100 to the "145", to get "245".
- Then, divide 100 (always 100 here) by 245.
- 100/245= 0.408, which we will round to 0.41
- 0.41 is the same thing as 41%.
- So, Team B (the 3 point underdog) has a 41% chance of winning this game.
If Team B has a 41% chance of winning, then Team A must have a 59% chance of winning (because these numbers must add up to 100%)
Here is the Bucs schedule
What is your likeliness to win each game? (%). Get to it. We will help you figure out your winning % if needed.