Put Your Prediction Where Your Mouth Is

It's here. The Buccaneers will play their first snap (albeit preseason) this Saturday against the Miami Dolphins.

Now, it's time. It's time to throw your prediction down on paper. How confident are you in the years Buccaneers? Well, a better way to measure this probably isn't just saying 6-10 or 10-6. Rather, by a method I first learned about at TomahawkNation. The goal is to see how confident you are in each game, and then coming up with a winning % based off your confidence. Here is why this method is likely more effective in predicting a teams record (It's also what professional gamblers use).

Bud Elliot explained this much better than I will be able to in the link posted above. So, before we get into it, it is imperative that you read through the whole story, however, here is a good chunk of it:

It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler.  He has a day job, but he makes his living betting sports like a day trader plays the stock market, complete with a healthy dose of arbitrage.  Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method.  We call it proportional win shares.  You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games. 

The idea is simple:  assign a winning % to each game.  For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), of that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).

Now, you might be thinking, "how do you project a team's winning percentage?"  This chart can help:

Point Spread Money Line
-2 -120/+120
-2.5 -130/+130
-3 -145/+145
-3.5 -175/+175
-4 -185/+185
-4.5 -200/+200
-5/-5.5 -215/+215
-6 -240/+240
-6.5 -260/+260
-7 -290/+290
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -330/+330
-9/-9.5 -350/+350
-10 -385/+385
-10.5 -415/+415
-11 -445/+445
-11.5 -475/+475
-12/ -12.5
-500/+500
-13 -525/+525
-13.5 -550/+550
-14 -580/+580
-14.5 -610/+610
-15/ 15.5 -640/+640
-16/16.5 -665/+665
-17 -690/+690
-17.5
-715/+715
-18/ -18.5/ -19/ -19.5 -740/+740
-20 -770/+770
-20.5 -800/+800
-21 -815/+815
-21.5 -830/+830
-23 -845/+845
-24 -875/+875
-28
-920/+920

 

You might be a bit lost right now, but that's okay.  Here's the idea.  A 3 point underdog, has a moneyline value of "+145".  In numerical terms, that comes out to 245, because you add 100.  Still with me?  If not, it's okay.  Keep following.  To determine a team's projected winning percentage, based on the vegas line, simply take the moneyline value in numerical terms, and divide it into one.

  • Team A is favored over Team B by 3 points.
  • Thus, Team B is an underdog of 3 points.
  • Team B can be referred to as +3
  • Using the chart above, we can see that an underdog of +3 is "+145" moneyline value.
  • Remember to add 100 to the "145", to get "245".
  • Then, divide 100 (always 100 here) by 245.
  • 100/245= 0.408, which we will round to 0.41
  • 0.41 is the same thing as 41%.
  • So, Team B (the 3 point underdog) has a 41% chance of winning this game.

 

 

  • If Team B has a 41% chance of winning, then Team A must have a 59% chance of winning (because these numbers must add up to 100%) 
  • Here is the Bucs schedule

    Cleveland

    @Carolina

    Pittsburgh

    @Cincinatti

    New Orleans

    St. Louis

    @ Arizona

    @Atlanta

    Carolina

    @San Fransisco

    @Baltimore

    Atlanta

    @ Washington

    Detroit

    Seattle

    @New Orleans.

     

    What is your likeliness to win each game? (%). Get to it. We will help you figure out your winning % if needed.

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