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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs - 2009
by Buc Wild on Jul 18, 2010 7:55 PM EDT
58 comments
I was perusing over at Football Outsiders and decided to pay my boy Cadillac a visit on the running back pages and see where he was ranked relative to other running backs based on the proprietary formulas FO runs. Once I found his numbers I decided to take a look at every other Bucs running back (really only Derrick Ward last year). What I found was the exact opposite of comforting.
Using DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards over Replacement), which measures, based on situation, down, distance, opponent etc the yards over the course of a season that Player X (Caddy) the yards or performance over a replacement level player. Caddy came in at 40 DYAR, good for 32nd last year and a far cry behind leader Chris Johnson who had a DYAR of 343.
The surprising part was Derrick Ward came in at a DYAR of negative 46. Let me repeat that; negative 46. One, that's awful and good for 46th in the league. Second, that means he and Caddy total a DYAR of 3 or essentially replacement level. I would go on to look at DVOA, but it's ugly.
Conversely, Carnell Williams, who supposedly had an issue with catching the ball out of the backfield had a DYAR of of 70 (DVOA of 20.2%). Color me surprised. Nice to see him fix that hole in his game. Cadillac certainly acquitted himself in 2009, but Ward, with is poor rushing numbers made up for it with a DYAR a bit better than Caddy's (77 DYAR).
FO also introduces a new stat called "E YArds" or Effective Yards. This takes DVOA and converts it into a yardage figure. This is to be compared to their true rushing yards. If a player has higher true rushing yards than effective yards, they weren't as good as numbers dictate. If E Yards were higher than real rushing yards, they played/rushed better than indicated. Cadillac and Ward both had lower Effective Yards than rushing yards, meaning, they weren't as impressive as their numbers dictate, and their numbers weren't that good.
The last thing I looked at was Success Rate %. This is defined by a relative success on each play. Getting certain yardage on certain down and distance makes it a success. Getting 3 yards on 3rd and 1 is a success. Getting 3 yards on 3rd and 10 is not. It also factors DVOA into the equation as a comparison. Higher Success Rate % with lower DVOA means the player gets the yards needed, but not much more. Higher DVOA with lower Success Rate means player is boom or bust (big run or no gain type of player). Higher on both means player is just a stud. Lower on both means uh oh. Caddy's DVOA and Success Rate were 2.8% and 38% while Ward's were -20% and 36% (Interesting read here if you want to follow up on RB Success Rate)
We knew our running game wasn't good. I had no idea that it basically amounted to a running game that could have been picked up by any waiver wire running back.
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Wow
that is depressing. Maybe drafting Unga isn’t such a bad idea after all.
by bucfanlostiniowa on Jul 15, 2010 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
Nice read, good stuff.
Looks like the metrics go hand-in-hand with the plodding, unexplosive play we’ve seen with the naked eye in the running game.
Cannons... fire them.
Buc'Em - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I strongly disagree with that assessment
This is a very limited look at DVOA and DYAR, and the fact that both running backs did so poorly, especially Ward, suggests that the problem is not wholly with the running backs – which is exactly what you’re suggesting. Ward performed extremely poorly, but the contrast with his numbers with the Giants cannot be explained by a drop in form – the lack of a passing game and a very poor O-line performance (31st in the league in the running game, according to FO) have to take a large part of the blame as well.
How do you dispute about the DVOA and DYAR numbers?
We could conversely say the OL numbers are affected by the RB numbers. There’s no clear answer, but every metric seems to reflect poorly on the ground game.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
DVOA and DYAR are for a large part based on success rates and do not separate back performance from O-line performance
When you have two running backs that were formerly above or well above replacement level in DVOA, and they both drop to below replacement level, that suggests that the problem at least in part lies with the common denominator: the O-line. But you’re suggesting that the problem is entirely the backs, and firing them and picking up two backs off the street would not change the performance. But you base that solely on the DVOA and DYAR numbers without looking at the context of the numbers, and that context suggests certainly that the backs weren’t Pro Bowlers, but running behind the second worst O-line in the league must have significantly depressed their numbers.
Conversely, couldn't the RB's have contributed to the OL's "poor" numbers?
It goes both ways. They are linked so to say it’s the OL’s fault or the RB’s fault is incorrect. It’s both, but if you look at traditional stats and advanced, nothing about our RB’s were great. (Same with our OL).
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
I never said it was only the OL at all
And yes, the RBs contribute to those numbers too. But the RBs cannot depress the numbers of the OL as much as the OL can depress the numbers of the RBs, since the OL numbers are based largely on the first few yards and not second-level yards.
And no, nothing about the RBs was great, but you’re treating them like they were as bad as random backs on the waiver wire, which is nonsense.
These metrics have nothing to do with talent though...
Only production. So, BW is right to treat them like they were no better off than a random back on the waiver wire, because that is what their production proved them to be last season.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
I am not a huge fan of detailed metrics...
so I can’t use them to illustrate my point here, but we clearly do not have the OL to generate some serious push up front. I wouldn’t call us a finesse team either, because our QBs got knocked around way too much last year for that to be true. Building a model OL in my mind (similar to CAR or NYJ) requires some big maulers up front. No other single change would help Josh Freeman develop more quickly than the ability to run the ball effectively. Forcing teams to stop the run first opens up the entire field to a QB, and a good one can exploit that at will.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 20, 2010 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anybody care that
at the begging of last offseason the backs and Linemen were told to get there bodies in shape for Jags zone running style. When he left and Olson came in the running game as a whole was at a deficiency. It was like they brought a knife to a gun fight.
The running backs were not told to lose weight. In fact, Caddy remained at playing weight and Ward didn't change much.
The OL is a different story
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
I feel with the coaching fiasco that went on
that certain things should be over looked. Can we compare the first half of the seasons numbers with the second half? Bet we would have a huge difference. The first half was so ugly it would make any numbers look bad, however, even though our ground game didn’t “take off” so to speak we did do better the second half of the season. As unstable as our team was last year I can’t base anybody’s performance on numbers. Offense was so up in the air with 3 different QB’s and the different defensive schemes that we had(both Offense and Defense both improved in the 2nd half) its just unfair to judge anybody with numbers like these. This and I don’t go by these numbers anyways, theres too many variables to consider.
"I wouldn't ever set out to hurt anyone deliberately unless it was, you know, important -like a league game or something." - Dick Butkus
It is a lot of work, but NFL.com allows you to do so...
I did it in an earlier post to illustrate that we did not improve defensively when Morris took over from Bates. YPG were almost identical in each of the 4 quarters of the season.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 15, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
We were behind most of the time and passing the ball.
So I think there are many factors that just can’t be put in to determine how good a RB is.
"Training camp is a little different. To me, that's when you establish the men. You take off your underwear." Raheem Morris
Besides, I think we have good backs, they just need to be used properly.
"Training camp is a little different. To me, that's when you establish the men. You take off your underwear." Raheem Morris
Agreed... they are not used properly
and our OL continues to be suspect, at best.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 15, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
cracker ball---what would be proper?
i didn’t like the 2 series for #1 then 2 series for #2 then 1 series——i suspect you didn’t either
so what would be better in your opinion?
Personally, I would like to see...
Someone become the clear #1 RB – whoever it turns out to be. Then have a #1B RB to come in and spell the starter. Having just one workhorse RB seems to be all but gone. Taking practically every running snap of every game may be outdated and since injuries are so common, it just makes sense to have someone that can come right in and play. Let the starter carry the ball 25 times or so, and the back-up the other 10 or so.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 25, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yards per game is a terrible defensive measure
Not only because only looking at yards to determine defensive performance is terribly limited (turnovers and consistency in defence – forcing three-and-outs – do count), but also because it fails to take into account the quality of opponents and the game situation. More specifically, it’s a per-game measure where a per-play measure says a lot more about the defensive performance.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA is a per-play metric, adjusted for opponent strength, and it showed significant improvement when Morris took over, as did my own two eyes and the fact that all games were close affairs and the defense was never blown out.
To quote the Football Outsiders Almanac:
Jim Bates coached the defense through Week 11. During that time, Tampa Bay’s defensive DVOA was 17.5%, which ranked 29th in the league. After that, Morris had seen enough and decided to handle the defense himself. From Week 12 through Week 17, with the Bucs running the Tampa-2, the defensive DVOA improved to 1.5%, which ranked 13th over that six-game period. Both pass and run defense improved equally.
It is certainly not all-inclusive...
but a pretty accurate picture can be painted by viewing the total yards gained, yards per rushing attempt, etc. I think judging rushing stats by those simple measures may be more accurate than the passing stats. We gave up a hefty YPC average and should an opposing team wisely decide to exploit us in that way, by simply running the ball down our throats, was probably their best chance at victory. It happened many times last year, so it must be viable. CAR has done this almost exclusively. It would also suggest that using this ground based game plan, which also usually controls the game clock, is the safest and most effective was to beat us. We aren’t exactly a quick strike offense (see IND).
by Cracker Ball on Jul 17, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
CAR tries to run down every opponent they face
But the Saints couldn’t run us down, which they certainly tried after going ahead through passing.
The Saints don't have the player personnel
for a strong running attack. They are effective enough though to where if you can’t stop the run then the Saints will exploit that weakness in your defense.
by keysersoze19 on Jul 17, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while...
I take our victory against the Saints as an anomaly that should be relished, as it will not likely happen again in quite some time. We are weak up the middle and with 2 rookies now in place, we will probably remain weak for a while.
The fact that NO marched right down the field so quickly when they needed to shows us that we are light years from where we should be defensively. If not for their FG miss, we win only 2.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 17, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
We are not light years away
we were just weak up the middle which affects our whole D. This is not something that takes long to fix. We have the players in place it is just can they do the Job I think they can, you think it will take 2 to3 years. You will see effective line play from these guys at the start of the 2010 preseason till whenever our season ends next year
by keysersoze19 on Jul 17, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Our "rookies" will be getting mauled...
by veteran OL players for, at least, this entire season. I believe the first game against CLE game will make my point for me. It will take a while, much longer than you think, to become competitive again.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 17, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
And what if the rookies don't get mauled
they are at a coin flip situation either they will produce or they wont produce. I would like to know how Cracker Ball thinks our D will play if our linemen produce right away.
by keysersoze19 on Jul 17, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
So there are only 2 possible options?
I think it may be a little more complicated than that… but I do not expect them to be much of an improvement over the 2 veterans that played those same positions last year. The 2 rookies may be much better raw athletic specimens – but do not have the game experience and “tricks of the trade” that the veteran players have acquired over the years.
Our D may improve slightly, but not enough to make us legit…
by Cracker Ball on Jul 17, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Just let me be the one to let you know
If our D Line does produce it will be more than a slight improvement. They will put everyone else in the back 7 (who were ranked high last year picking the ball off), in a better position to make plays. Mccoy is key cause him causing problems down the line of scrimmage frees up Hayes to make plays in the run game. Production from our DTs is last thing any opposing offense wants to see trust me!
by keysersoze19 on Jul 18, 2010 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Just because a team has low expectations
does not mean they can not win. You can’t sleep on no team in the NFL.
by keysersoze19 on Jul 18, 2010 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the low talent level does...
mean they cannot win. Well… maybe 3 times.
by Cracker Ball on Jul 18, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
You can't sleep on no team in the NFL
98 Rams 4-12, 99 Rams 13-3 superbowl champs
2000 Patriots 5-11, 2001 Patriots 11-5 superbowl champs
2007 Miami Dolphins 1-15 2008 Miami Dolphins 11-5
2007 Atlanta Falcons 4-12, 2008 Atlant Falcons 11-5
by keysersoze19 on Jul 18, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see Parcells, Belichick or Vermeil
on our sidelines… do you?
by Cracker Ball on Jul 18, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
If not for special teams play, we win 1 game all year
I really think that unit is being undersold this offseason.
Still, of course were weak up the middle when Raheem took over – the front 4 didn’t change. But the defensive improvement was certainly visible and measurable if you look beyond the yardage per game – which is not a useless measure, but certainly a limited one.
RB are easy to draft
are running game is by far not the best in the league but that just means that Josh Freeman gets to make more throws(which has yet to be seeen if thats a good or bad thing) but this issue can wait til next off season in the draft we have pieces that will(hopefully) hold up for one more season
No surprise
Nice to see I have some company. I have mostly been rejected when I say RB is a problem . I wanted us to address this in the draft or through trade. But no such luck. This ground game will still suck, as a whole, this year. They are all backups. We don’t have a starting caliber running back. They aren’t as overrated as our OL but pretty close. Here is hoping Freeman makes a huge jump this year. This isn’t likely either with our young WR core. Improving the running game should have been the top priority this offseason. Dom is a fool if he is counting on Caddy. In fact it does Caddy a disservice. He should be backup. Limit his touches and try to keep him healthy.
The only chance for success is dramatic improvement from Caddy in his 2nd year back from surgery. IF he does they will run him into the ground. Unfortunately, his career tells us that he can’t carry the load and stay healthy. I love him. That’s why I hate to see him put in a bad position.
"big-time players make big-time plays in big games."
The problem is
it’s hard to justify going after a RB when you have so many more gaping holes. Not sure drafting a guy in the 5th round was an answer considering we ran the ball 400 times and the 3rd RB may have had 30 of those carries.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
We have a good back feild
If we can get our o line back to the blocking scheme that they had used in the past we could be right back on top. We had one of the back o lones in the league 2 years ago…then we changed to a scheme that no longer fit our personal or stregnths. Aside from Sears our line is same. If we keep Grahm at full back, he will be one of the better ion the league, Caddy…you can never give up on tis guy. Ward, I think we tade him and see if we can get a d-end who has some speed off the edge. We need to get Karreem Huggin on the feild for a change of pace. Right now we have 2 backs on the field with the same skill set….not a change of pace…its a change of face..thats it. Huggy ran a 4.28 40 time. Really! Thats Chris Johnson fast! and he was pretty successfull last year..I heard. HUggy runs hard hard hard hard. We got to get him on the feild full time. I can’t wait to see him again in preseason.
Go bucs
Speed doesn't always translate to a good football player.
I know you have a thing for Huggins, you’ve mentioned him a few times on other posts. He did look good in preseason, against other players who are not employed by the NFL anymore. There is actually a very good chance he won’t be on the team this year because it’s a very crowded backfield, but we’ll see. I hope he does well and makes it.
"Training camp is a little different. To me, that's when you establish the men. You take off your underwear." Raheem Morris
This is it in a nut shell
Every one has put their trust in Cadillac Williams. There will be other backs who will run, but Cadillac will be the heart and soul of the run game. I think Cadillac is going to haver a good year running and catching the ball. He is a red zone machine,real crafty, he has a smooth running technique, and he rarely fumbles.
People talk bad about the O-Line, but by NFL rankings they were ranked 14th last year. If Penn does not come back there will be a big difference in their performance. But Cadillac will have some nice holes opened to him, this year he will be at 100% and last year he aint do nothing but get his feet wet, I think next year we will see the reason why Cadillac was the fifth overall selection in 2005. He will be a sleeper fantasy pick next year
People talk bad about the O-Line, but by NFL rankings they were ranked 14th last year
Where did you get that stat?
I don't know how to add links
NFL.com team stats, Offensive line. when you click on go it will take you to post season stats click on regular season and you will see the Bucs O-Line ranked 14 overall
by keysersoze19 on Jul 19, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That ranking is based on sacks allowed.
We also allowed the 7th most QB hits.
For future reference, if you want to put a link in a post
Copy and paste the website URL. Post your comment on Buc ’Em. Highlight the comment or key word, click the little chain link icon right above where you are typing, that should pop open a dialogue box. Paste the link in there, hit OK.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Link to rankings please
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Good luck with that.
"Training camp is a little different. To me, that's when you establish the men. You take off your underwear." Raheem Morris
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