Southern Landscapes: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is definitely not an under-the-radar type of city. CNN, Coke, Chick-Fil-A, Home Depot, Usher, coughJustinBeiberCough, Alan Jackson...you get the point. It is a southern city that has big names and big headlines. It is also one of the few cities in the NFL where the team is not a direct reflection of the culture. The current make-up of the Atlanta Falcons is a team that you would expect to find in the Midwest. They are a little blue-collar, somewhat underrated and definitely under-the-radar. They keep to themselves, are content with a team of role-players with few "stars" and have a very legitimate shot of upseting the defending Super Bowl champions as the NFC South winners.
In part 2 of a 3 part series, we will take a quick but in-depth look at the Atlanta Falcons and how they factor into the Bucs season.
Schedule
November 7 - 1:00PM - Georgia Dome
December 5 - 1:00PM - Raymond James Stadium
Key Additions
Sean Witherspoon (LB) R, Corey Peters (DT) R, Dunta Robinson (CB) 6th Season
Key Losses
Chris Houston (CB), Tye Hill (CB)
The Falcons have remained fairly steady this offseason, hoping to recover from a plethora of injuries and adding a couple of crucial pieces to their defense. Sean Witherspoon adds to an already very good LB corp, bringing athleticism and play making abilities to the weak-side. Chris Houston and Tye Hill really aren't huge losses. At most, they lose some depth, but both players have under-achieved in their time in Atlanta. Hill was a proven bust who they didn't mind giving the papers to and they traded Houston to Detroit to bulk up on the LOS in the draft. Arthur Blank is building a team of good characters and solid players.
Strengths:
The Falcons strength on offense is balance. They passed the ball 570 (56%) times last season and ran the ball 451 (44%) with their talent favoring their passing offense. I don't mind a team being slightly off-balanced as long as their talent matches their dispersion of the ball (not the Bucs). I consider that balance. While Turner is a Top 10 back when healthy, he missed 5 games and was often playing through ankle pain last season. Roddy White is an elite WR, Gonzalez is still an Elite TE and Matt Ryan is an elite QB. I expected the Falcons to make additions in the WR corp this offseason, but apparently have more faith in Michael Jenkins (who, depending on who you ask, is one of the league leaders in dropped passes) than what the casual fan sees. Their Offensive Line is average and have reasonable depth and they bring depth to the RB position.
On defense their strength is easily their LB corps. Witherspoon, Lofton (Pro-Bowl) and Peterson will be their starters. Peterson, a former pro Bowler is probably their weakest position, which is saying a lot. He is 34, past his prime, but still serviceable at worst. I also don't hate their DT's. Corey Peters, Babineaux and Thomas Johnson offer a viable protection against the run.
Weakness:
On offense, their WR still has some work to be done. I don't like Jenkins and the options are pretty slim after him, unless Harry Douglas recovers from injury and Eric Weems surprises everyone. Sam Baker and Tyson Clabo have shown some promise on the outside, but the meat of their offensive line comes inside. They don't allow many sacks, but they also don't give Offensive Coordinator Mike Mularkey a whole lot of confidence to run behind. Again, this could be a situation in which Mularkey believes in playing to their RB's strength (Turner is a very physical back), a foreign concept to Greg Olsen.
On defense, their secondary still needs to catch up. The addition of Robinson will be huge and Brent Grimes is an OK 2nd CB. However, Thomas DeCoud and Eric Coleman may not start for a lot of teams in this league. Coleman can hit and provide run support, but I would say he is fairly ineffective in the pass game. The Falcons also have no pass rush. They ranked 28th in sacks last year, and the additions made are more focused against the run. Their defensive line could look very similar to ours this year.
How the Bucs can be successful against them:
I didn't think our game-plan was terrible against them last year. Take away the run and make Matt Ryan get to his 2nd and 3rd reads. They threw the ball 35 and 44 times against us last year. Unfortunately in the game they threw 44 times, 41 of them were thrown by Chris Redman. We absolutely should have taken advantage of that, and we didn't. He was incredibly successful against our defense because we had absolutely no pass-rush and gave Gonzalez, Jenkins and White far too much time and freedom. Easier said than done, but you have to keep a body on Gonzalez. I would venture to guess that Quincy Black was largely uncomfortable against a Tight-End of this caliber. The addition of Price and McCoy and another year for Miller should push Turner outside and allow out athletic and fast OLB make plays.
Your going to hear me say this quite a bit, but on offense we have to run the ball. If we can gain any success against an elite LB corp, it will knock a sub-par secondary off-balance giving Freeman the ability to have a nice day while Williams is getting behind these safeties. Run First. Run First. Run First. It should honestly be Olsen's motto going into this year. Run plays that match talent.
Outlook:
Again, this team isn't sexy. It doesn't have flashy names past White and Gonzalez. It has a reserved and strategic Head Coach in Mike Smith. I think this is exactly what we can expect of them. They won't be at the top of the NFL, but the Saints will have to compete with them for the division. They won't send a lot of players to the Pro Bowl, but they will absolutely be respected by anyone who spends 5 minutes in the film room (Freeman?). Playing an easy schedule (as is the rest of the South) will benefit the Falcons and I will go ahead and predict them to be a Wild-Card team in the Playoffs. Expect between 9-11 wins. Matt Ryan commented to the AJC that they "feel like they are closer to 12 or 13 wins than we are to 8."
For complete coverage of all things Atlanta Falcons head over to The Falcoholic. Dave runs an excellent site with well-thought out articles on Atlanta.
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You guys better keep an eye for my boy Harry Douglas.
He was looking like the next Marvin Harrison before he went down with injury! Homerism for my Cards aside, I think that his return will add some much needed depth to that receiving corp. The one thing I don’t really agree with you on is that Matt Ryan is an elite QB. Say what you will about the merits of QB rating, but the guys that are truly considered elite are usually rated in at least the 90’s. Ryan finished his 2nd year with a 80.9, which isn’t bad, but I wouldn’t say elite. His completion % was also under 60% last year.
I agree with that they are well balanced and that we had a semi effective plan in place vs them last year. I’m just not ready to crown Ryan as the next great QB in the NFC South quite yet.
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
My guess is that when the NFC South torch is passed next...
it will be to the Atlanta Falcons. They are pretty solid top to bottom and if NO falters, they should be right behind them. Ryan is lucky he has a strong runner in Turner to ease some of the offensive pressure. He doesn’t have to do it all.
They have all the makings...
to be a very good team for a while. They do have some age concerns, but it’s not widespread and it’s nothing they can’t continue to build on. Blank is just building a tremendous team from the ground up and has a classy organization. Blank and Smith are probably the classiest Owner/HC combo in the league.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
I usually don't talk about immeasurables
because they are pretty worthless, but you are always going to win me over with class.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
I'm impressed with how much balance they did have
particularly with Turner being out a bunch and two stud WR/TE in Gonzo and White. To be able to make teams guess as to whether you will be ground based or air based is a huge advantage. I’m still not sold on Ryan, though his downside seems to be league average while his upside is fairly high, I dont think he busts, but I want to see him be above average for periods of time before I’m sold.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
His lack of depth at WR has to be accounted for.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
Sure, but I think he has it pretty good.
White is no doubt a top tier #1 now that he has a real QB, and even if Gonzo is slowing down he is still a viable #2 threat. That is a lot more than probably half the teams out there. Plus he has a top 10ish running back to carry the load. Ryan only has to be in the top half of the league and their offense will be above average.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
REMEMBER
GREG OLSON DON’T UNDERSTAND THAT BALANCE STUFF.
Damn, has it been that long? Is that what happens since I been gone, homie?
they go the game all wrong, it’s too pretty in here, lets say we take it back to the trap one time
by Some other guy who does not care on Jun 21, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Ryan
I think he is the big question mark, in his first year he looked like he might be the next elite Qb in the NFL but last season I thought he looked pretty average. He has some pretty good recieving options but i overall I think ATL lookslike an 8-8 type of team. They had a lucky 08
Reminds me of Delhomme
Good at times and average at other times. Now that teams know his tendencies it’ll be interesting on how he performs. If he’s good then watch out, for the team to win he just needs to be average and protect the ball. They should give the Saints a run for their money.
Understand
The falcons had a tough schedule in 09. The whole NFC South did. The Falcons played 10 of the 16 games against teams with a top 10 pass defense. Throw that in with the three games Matt Ryan missed, and it suddenly doesn’t seem like he took that much of a decline.
Also,
Nice Errgh…Erm…Biaerber diss.
Damn, has it been that long? Is that what happens since I been gone, homie?
they go the game all wrong, it’s too pretty in here, lets say we take it back to the trap one time
by Some other guy who does not care on Jun 21, 2010 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
Do you often get something caught in your throat when thinking of him?
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example." ~ Mark Twain
According to Wikipedia, Bieber spent 13/16 of his life as a Canadian.
Thus, we can only take minimal blame.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
Fair enough.
I live in Atlanta and when I saw that I was a little bit shameful.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
See? This is just what I've been talking about...
New Mexico is focused on the wrong immigrants!
If you will it, dude, it is no dream.
Nice write-up, UNFNOLE
Its good to get a outside perspective. I agree with almost everything you said. If anything, you may have given us a little too much credit at times, but that is refreshing. The one thing that I would like to differ on is your assessment of Thomas DeCoud. We’re all really high on this guy and we’re expecting him to be a strong component of our secondary for years to come. He had a great year last season (with a few bumps in the road) and indications are that the coaches and management think very highly of him. In fact, I believe Smith named him the defensive MVP last year…
"It's called Thanksgiving for a reason. If I can give and people thank me for it, that's kind of the thing that makes me feel great inside." - Dunta
I enjoyed this
Always nice to see write-ups of our team done well.
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Did a lot of my research on your site.
"I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault." ~ Jack Tatum
I agree with pretty much everything said here
Our season will ride on two things:
1) Matt Ryan’s continued improvement. If he has a great season, we’ll be in the playoffs. If he doesn’t, we won’t have much of a chance. As much as we like our ground game, it can only take us so far. And if Turner gets injured? Snelling is a great backup, but he’s not really a game-changer. We need Matty Ice to take some pressure (and a few carries) away from Turner. If he can play like a great quarterback, our offense will be pretty impressive.
2) The ability of the d-line to generate a pass rush. We need to be able to get to the quarterback without blitzing valuable defenders from coverage (not like we blitz that much anyways). This is probably the most concerning issue we have, not only because we are counting on an aging veteran and a couple of other young guys at defensive end, but we also expect Babineaux to be suspended since he was found in possession of marijuana last year. Also our 1st round pick last year at DT hasn’t fully recovered after missing most of the 2009 season. After them we have a 3rd round pick, who many thought (I think incorrectly) was a reach, Jamaal Anderson , the bust who was drafted to be a DE, and few late round picks. Yikes.
But you pretty much nailed it, and it’s interesting to see the Falcons from a dreaded Buccaneer’s perspective. Personally, I don’t think y’all are playoff bound yet, but I believe that in 2011 the Bucs are gonna be one nasty bunch. And it’s definitely no lock that we win against y’all next year…looking forward to those games, I’m sure they’ll be hard-fought, as always.
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