Random Thought of the Day: Can We Build This Thing Through the Draft? Returns are Mixed.
by Craig T on Mar 28, 2010 9:43 PM EDT
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Just as a precursor to the post.... I want to say first that if you're still here with us and reading our work, I want to thank each and every one of you. It means alot to me and all of us here that you find our work worthy of reading and discussing. Your opinions, comments, and fanposts are the lifeblood of this site, which is what SBNation is all about....a site by the fans for the fans. I will treat your opinions and commentary on a subject with the same level of respect as I have for this staff and hopefully as you will treat ours. What I will be trying to do here is elicit discussion from you on current, relevant issues with the Buccaneers and the NFL. I'm not a sunny-side-of-life kind of guy, nor a doom and gloom. I think there are plenty of good and bad things to discuss and I will try to tell you what I think, and I hope you will give me your straight opinions as well.
Now, as I was having my morning coffee the other day and perusing through the Q&A that Rick Stroud held recently with Joel Glazer, I stopped on the following dialogue:
What's your assessment of the 2009 season?
First of all, 3-13, let me go back to 0-7, was definitely the most painful seven weeks of my NFL life. How did we get there? I start with going back further and looking at drafting. We believe that drafting is the lifeblood of sustained success long term. We have not done as good of a job as we need to do drafting over the last several years. That's the first seed that gets planted or the cancer that starts early on that you don't fully see until time goes forward.
I stared at that again.
We have not done as good of a job as we need to do drafting over the last several years.
Hmm. I took another sip of coffee. I thought to myself....what was that little thing that our front office has been preaching repeatedly in response to what direction this team would be taken...
We are going to build this thing through the draft.
Sip. My inner monologue kicks in and a ray of optimism washes away that little cloud of doubt for a moment.....5 picks in the first 99. 5 potential starters. 5 holes that could be filled. Heck yea. Impact wide receiver. Tampa 2 D-tackle. Maybe a good rush end. Some potential studs to build the future around.
We have not done as good of a job as we need to do drafting over the last several years.
Egad. That little cloud is back to rain on my internal parade of optimism. Why is that? What is it about this comment that has me so hung up?
The last several years.
But Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden effectively made those ultimate decisions about who to draft, right? They're gone, so that's not a big deal. Mark and company can get this thing done, yes?
I think the heart of that question goes beyond Mark and Raheem and hits even deeper than that......it all starts with scouting.
We've all been told by the front office that the future of this team and the reason for hope for better seasons ahead lies in the results of this draft. Some fans have been willing to accept, and seemingly assume, that we are going to succeed in the draft based on the premium position the Bucs hold in each round of the draft and the bundle of picks they have to play with. What nobody has really been talking about and delving into is how well this team has drafted the past few years.
While it's not 100% clear what mix of input was given and considered under Bruce Allen's watch, the fact is that director of college scouting Dennis Hickey and his staff of scouts are still around and working this draft. Mark Dominik was the former Pro Personnel Director in charge of scouting free agents rather than college players, but his job was to evaluate talent and there's no doubt he was in the Buccaneer War Room on draft day participating in the process with Dennis, Frank Dorazio, and the rest of the scouting department.
Any old joe can find a star player in the first round of the draft. What this group should be judged on is two-fold.....finding those players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds that will start and become impact players within the next 2 or 3 years and finding special teamers, role players (pass rush specialists, situational guys, etc), and key reserves in 4th and 5th rounds.
Have the Bucs done that successfully in the past few years? Well, you tell me based on the number of players who panned out with the team. Here's who's still with the Buccaneers from the past four drafts:
2005: Cadillac Williams, Barrett Ruud (12 picks)
2006: Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, Maurice Stovall (reserve) (11 picks)
2007: Arron Sears (reserve), Sabby Piscitelli, Quincy Black, Tanard Jackson (10 picks)
2008: Aqib Talib, Jeremy Zuttah, Dre Moore (reserve), Josh Johnson (reserve), Geno Hayes, Clifton Smith (undrafted free agent) (7 picks)
2009: Josh Freeman, Roy Miller (reserve), Kyle Moore (reserve), Sammie Stroughter (6 picks)
The upshot? About what you might expect......some solid players at the top of the draft, some nice mid-round gems (Hayes/Black/Tanard Jackson), the occasional late-draft gem (Sammie Stroughter), and some risky picks based on raw, unrealized talent that blew up in their face (Gaines Adams/Dexter Jackson). What's glaring is the lack of depth acquired in the 2005-2007 drafts. For every solid move they made, there was a Chris Colmer/Donte Nicholson that fizzled out. That's where teams like the Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, and Colts, have been able to identify the prime talent out of the less-heralded crop and hit on their 3rd/4th round picks and keep their roster stocked with quality players. Overall, out of the 46 picks the Buccaneers made, 19 of those are still with the team and 11 finished the year as positional starters. That's a pretty low ratio/high attrition rate of your mid-round players.
Also, out of all their first and second round picks, only one player drafted eventually made the Pro Bowl....Davin Joseph in 2008.
So I put to you what I've been wondering internally.........based on past results, are you comfortable entrusting arguably the most important draft in team history in the hands of this front office and scouting department? Are you confident in their abilities to identify quality talent, evaluate players and whether they would be a fit in the Bucs' scheme, and make the correct moves to improve this football team?
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Anyone who says they know for sure this will be a great or horrible draft for the Bucs is just guessing. I think we will have to wait and see. Dominik has made some moves that look like genius, and some that leave me wondering what he could have possibly been thinking. One thing is definitely for sure, they better get it right this year. This year is for all the marbles for the Bucs future. Next year’s draft won’t be as good. If we don’t do well in this draft, it will be devastating for the next several years. Even after the draft days are over we won’t really be able to score their choices. Look at Stroughter, I was excited to get him after watching his videos on draft day, but everyone seemed surprised that the 7th rounder made the team. To me this is an exciting time to be a Bucs fan. Sure to most it feels dismal, but I am very hopeful. I can’t wait to see what moves lie ahead, and if players improve from last year’s performance.
I think Im most excited to see how Josh Freeman progresses
….See if we finally have that franchise quarterback we’ve been looking for. I was skeptical of the selection of Freeman, but he’s shown he has the big arm and the physical tools to be successful…..if he can just eliminate some of the mental mistakes and head-scratching INTs, which will hopefully come from experience and film study.
Cannons... fire them.
Buc'Em - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
by Craig T on Mar 28, 2010 8:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To help Freemans development, he needs a couple of quality WR
So hopefully we can come up with 1 good possession receiver (Jordan Shipley?) and one good deep threat (Carlton Mitchell) in rounds 3 and 4. The DEF needs the first 3 choices the most (DT, DE and CB) to fill glaring spots. Any players that stick past these 5 are just gravy.
It is very possible to do.
by Cracker Ball on Mar 28, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
No doubt he needs some help.
I just wonder where it will come from. Im sure a draft pick or two will be spent on wide receivers, but what round is the key question.
I'm confident
as I can be. I think they did a good job last year. That is we have to go on. Scouts may be the same but the decision maker are totally different. Now since we have only had one draft its hard to be overly confident. if they blow this draft it will be the end of their career’s in TB.
"big-time players make big-time plays in big games."
I am pretty much inline with your thinking, the only issue is, we all keep saying "if they blow this draft, they're done).
We won’t know that for 2-3 years at the earliest. I refuse to judge rookies on one year of play. Some guys just take time. If Morris and Dominik whiff on this draft, then the talent level wont get better, we wont win games and they will be gone. But if we draft Suh (or McCoy or Berry) and they dont light our worlds on fire in year 1, Im ok with that as long as they become solid/great players.
It makes you wonder if the FO feels the pressure or if they are just going about their business.
I agree with giving time to let players develop
Realistically, Freeman for example, should improve, but we still need to remember how young he is. Most QBs aren’t Super Bowl caliber for several years if they are ever good enough. Same goes with most other positions.
For Morris and Dominik to save themselves
some of these draft choices will really have to contribute this year. My best guess is that hey will not have another year if some real progress is not shown in the W-L column. The internal squabblings between Gruden and Allen (arguing over Megatron Johnson, Chris Simms etc) left Bruce Allen the victor and Jon Gruden steaming.
The drafting during Grudens tenure was not as bad as everyone thinks – We have JJ, Cadillac, Stovall, OLs Penn, Sears, Trueblood and Zuttah, LBs Black, Hayes and Ruud, DBs T-Jack and Talib all from his time here. It could be worse.
by Cracker Ball on Mar 28, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I would have to disagree with saying that the drafting wasn't that bad under Gruden.
I would say it was not good enough. Go back and look at who else was on the board when we selected in those draft years. That is a better measure of how we have drafted. Would you rather have picked Ruud, or Lofa Tatupu? Michael Clayton or the next WR taken Michael Jenkins? Gaines Adams as a high 1st rounder and Dexter Jackson in Round 2 were absolute disasters. Not all their pics were bad, but they weren’t drafting well when compared to the better teams in the league.
Good point
I didn’t meant they will be fired in November if the rookies fail. I just think they have to hit in order to turn this thing around. Your right the final verdict won’t come down after one year. IF it does it will be because it was just awful. They have to take a step forward next year. Not a big step but a step.
"big-time players make big-time plays in big games."
by SoonerSlayer on Mar 29, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
This may come as a surprise for most people, but I actually have more confidence in the drafting ability this year than in previous years.
As Craig points out, with the exception of Allen and Gruden, the scouts and other front office members are the same. So why am I so optimistic? Because the message we as fans have received has changed. Sure its the same players (sub in Rah and Dom for Allen and Jonny) but its a new philosophy. Lets not kid ourselves. Gruden (and I suppose Allen) were very much about acquiring free agent talent, and drafting to fill immediate holes to keep the 9-7 boat afloat. Dominik and Morris are preaching something totally different, something it seems we all agree on (though we may not agree on how they are currently doing that). And thats building through the draft, stockpiling picks and going young. Sure, there is a price to pay (hello 3-13), but the message is true.
Our draft history over the last few years is nasty as the article shows. I have no idea what happens in the war room as far as who gets final say. I would assume GM gets final say, with HC being right there. For all we know, Hickey could have been picking winners and Gruden could have been over ruling them. Or perhaps other wanted to go with a different player and Allen made the call on Adams and others.
One thing is for sure, the message has changed while the FO outside of GM and HC has not changed. With a new philosophy of building through the draft and stopping the .500 (8-8, 9-7) ship, I think they can get it done, at least as well as most front offices could.
This is exactly what I was thinking
after reading the article. The scouts did their job and deliver the information to the coaches/GM, from there it is in the war room personnel’s (ie. Gruden/Allen) hand to make a pick. We are getting what we knew would happen when the Glazer’s paid the price for Gruden…future futility.
I like others thought Freeman was not the right QB, I have reversed my stance like the others as well…guy is a football player. So far Stroughter and Miller have contributed and the other picks (K. Moore, Fulton and Biggers) all suffered injuries that basically make this next season their rookie years. So add those 3 with the new picks and we get a minimum of 14 rookies with a chance to compete for a roster spot. And there should be a number of open spots this year.
I am confident that this regime can make something of the draft and put the right players on this team. Yeah, I am a rosy Buc fan, what can you do.
Looks like we pretty much agree as to the philosophy and expectations of the draft.
Nothing wrong with being a rosy fan. I think we all are on the edge of our seats for the draft and we still have 3.5 weeks to wait.
Another piece by Stroud on the draft
Click it here. It looks like a follow up to the article Craig is referring to here.
I think there's plenty of room for optimism here
And it does relate to Gruden and Allen. Gruden was the type of drafter who went for measurables and workout performance over everything (cough Dexter Jackson), he’d fall in love with a guy’s physical tools and say to himself ‘Yeah his skills suck, but I can totally develop them’. Well, guess what Gruden? You can’t do that all that often, either you simply couldn’t or the players you picked couldn’t be developed. Gruden’s draft strategy was terrible, and it showed. When we still had Rich McKay at least he kept Gruden in check – Allen just let him do whatever he wanted.
Another reason for optimism is simply last year’s draft: A promising young QB in round 1, a starting(in a rotation) DT in round three, a DE who showed some promise in round four and a starting slot receiver/return man in round seven. The other two picks were both on injured reserve for the entire season and hence can’t be evaluated yet. Basically, out of 6 picks we got 3 starters, 1 contributor and 2 unkowns. That’s a great haul.
That said, it is worrying the scouting department hasn’t changed. The fact that last year’s draft was encouraging mitigates that, though.
I think the (perceived) success of last year's draft
gives a little hope for the possibility that our scouting department was doing it right all along, but we had a couple of guys at the top making their own independent decisions. However, I find it hard to believe the input of a scouting department is not accepted or implemented in some way.
Cannons... fire them.
Buc'Em - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Yeah, I'm skeptical too
But it’s pretty much impossible to tell to what extent this is the fault of the scouts vs the fault of the decision makers.
Regarding late-round picks and scouting departments – at that point the cooperative scouting agencies (BLESTO and The National) come into play too, for the Bucs that’d be the National. So that absolves some of the debt of the Bucs’ own scouting department , too.
You've inspired me to do some research on first round picks.
Curious to see what the relative success rate is.
With their professional careers hanging in the balance, I bet Morris and Dominik go conservative, which should be good for us. They wont pass up a sure thing for a project.
I do not beleive that all rests on the draft this year. The Glazer’s have said that they plan on giving Raheem and Morris plenty of time. I beleive they said as long as they are thinking long term, than the owners will back them…more or less. That being said, I beleive the scouting dept can get the job done. I am sure that management told the scouts what they were looking for, and held the final say anyway. If you say…this is the type of guys we arte looking for, like a speedy WR that may surprise other teams with his untapped potential (Jackson), than that is where the scouts are going to focus.
Adams
Remember that they say Kiffin convinced everyone to pull the trigger on Gaines.
And this brings up an interesting point
Almost all the draft picks that are still with the team were defensive and O-line picks. Offensive linemen have a high success rate and are relatively easy to project, so that makes some sense. And defensive players were probably picked mostly by Monte and not Gruden.
2 years is fair enough.
I don’t think the leash is that long and an empty stadium will not help their case either. I think Suh alone will help a lot immediately, but there are still a lot of holes to fill and experience to gain.
Stay thirsty my friends.
Draft picks are never a sure thing
I haven’t really found fault with the Bucs drafting at all in years past, sometimes that is just how it goes. When you are a successful playoff team, you don’t get a lot of top choices where the higher probability picks are. Gaines was our one big failure at #4, but he was highly touted and projected to go to us, so it wasn’t like he was a surprise pick. You take chances on guys and hope it works. This year will be the same. Hopefully it works out for the best, but I would hate to blame the GM or Coach totally. Gaines looked like a good pick, Clayton had a great first year, and then got complacent. Caddy was phenomenal before the injury, I mean we didn’t find a diamond in the rough, but again not that many turn into superstars. Dexter Jackson was promising player in my eyes, very fast, and KR potential. He was just not up for getting hit by the big dogs.
I would just hate for us to compare this regime’s results to previous years, as that isn’t really fair. The previous regime kept a playoff contender on the field. This tregime is specifically cutting salary and playing cheap players / rookies, with no pressure to win now. That is the key, I think with the same circumstances, the previous regime would have done well in this situation, but I think it all comes down to the dollars, Raheem is cheaper than Morris as is Dominick. Declare rebuild, cut all high priced salaries, including the front office, and market future potential. It is a good cost saving plan, but we should not compare the drafts without noting the pick values and the overall team agenda. When you are a playoff hopeful, sometimes you force a pick to try to fill a need, but when you have no aspirations, it can be easier to make a pick for the best possible player.
Thanks for sharing your comments Eric
As far as DJax goes very few people realize that he didn’t even return kicks in college. He was primarily a slot receiver and returned the occasional punt. I always thought it was dumb they would put a small guy like that back there that had never done it before and just expect him to be the next Dante Hall.
"Nobody in the game of football should be called a genius. A genius is somebody like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
Amazing things can happen when a coach believes there is potential in a player.
Stay thirsty my friends.
This is why I hate it when
draft picks are gambled on potential. Didn’t the old regime do this again with a WR (Brackens) in the 5th round a few years ago. Guy was in JuCo and they loved his potential. Never saw the field.
I would be just fine with basing the draft on the player’s production and let other teams gamble. Sure you miss out on some great players every once in a while, but not often.
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