Year 2 of rebuilding begins soon.
When Jon Gruden was fired, when Derrick Brooks was released, and when it became evident that the Bucs would not approach the salary cap limit, the Bucs officially went into rebuilding mode. But what does that mean? We hear this term thrown around, usually by the media as most teams try to avoid that phrasing as they think it sends out a negative vibe about the program or organization.
Truth be told, that's where the Bucs are right now. I discussed this pretty heavily last year, both in print and with anyone who would listen. The general consensus seems to be that if indeed a team is rebuilding, the plan should unfold in 3 years.
Year 1 is spent establishing systems, relationships and foundations. Usually the team does not have the talent to make a run at anything significant, thus a poor record ensues.
Year 2 is used by building on the foundations, winning a game or two they weren't supposed to, and stringing together a few wins.
Year 3 is the payoff year. This should be the year when you win all the games you are supposed to and a few others that were coin flips.
In my 3 year lookahead for the Bucs, I targeted a 4-12 year 1, 7-9 year 2, and a 10-6 year 3 with a playoff berth happening. Year 1 (2009) has come and gone, and while they didn't hit my initial target, they did come close. The Bucs brought in players they felt would fit their system, mainly through the draft, and the foundation should have been established. It looks like it has been, though there is still some groundwork to go.
What can we expect for Year 2 and beyond? Well, the negativity seems to be outweighing optimism now, and I can certainly understand why. To expect or call for an 10+ win season next year probably isn't feasible. I'd enjoy it as much as the next person, but continued progress and staying the course, assuming the course is true, is the way to achieve the goal. I look for 2010 to be an improvement of 2009, but not quite where we want to be in the long run. Complicating the matters are the lack of a CBA and the looming 2011 non-season.
As we enter Year 2 of the rebuilding phase, it's important to remember that Rome wasn't built in a day, but they did lay stones and progress each day. Lets hope we see that same progress in 2010.
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I have to disagree with you on the foundation being established
The defense is a mess, plain and simple. There are only four players on the starting defense that should be starting in the NFL. Talib, Ruud, Jackson, and Hayes. All the other players are below average for their position.
The drafting of Freeman was an attempt to lay a foundation on offense, but as I have said many times before, the jury is still out on him. He turned the ball over an unsettling number of times, even for a rookie. The rest of the offense was paid a lot of money and couldn’t find it’s comfort zone all season. Not too much of a foundation in my book.
With the addition of ten draft picks next year, it will truly be the make or break year for laying a foundation. So, although many teams may indeed try to implement a three year plan, it would appear ours is a four year one. I say this mainly because we are left with just as many questions this year as we had last year, if not more.
What type of offense are we going to have? (Note: I know what type they say we are going to have, but I trust what comes out of their mouths about as far as I can throw a refrigerator at this point).
Is Raheem really a good D-coordinator or did the defense improve only because he had the benefit of facing three back up QB’s in a row and a Saints team that was already cruising towards a first round by in the playoffs?
Are any of the rookies drafted last year (besides Stroughter and Freeman) going to have a significant impact on the football field in 2010?
If we are not going to be players in free agency (as Dominik hinted last week), then can we honestly expect to win more than four or five games next year?
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
The foundation may not have been set the way you (or anyone) wanted, but its there.
On offense we have a young QB, young RB, young WR’s and young line. On defense we have started assembling the pieces. It may not be for a top 5 defense, but if our offense is top 10 (a stretch), our defense only has to be good enough to allow us to win.
I know we dont know about Freeman about this point, but Im discussing this from a management perspective. They had/have a plan. The plan may not be foolproof, but this wasnt a one year turnaround, its a multi year deal. The Bucs teams that turned it around in the late 90’s had the opposite problem. They had guys on defense (most of the defense was quality) but the offense was below average. Its the flip side of where we are now. Our defense was awesome and our offense just had to be good enough to win.
Look at teams like Indy. Their offense is stacked, and their defense is good, but they dont have 11 Pro Bowlers on D. They have systems guys. Do you think Clint Sessions or Philip Wheeler are top 15 at their positions? How about Jerraud Powers? They aren’t the best in the league, but they get the job done.
If it were up to me, we wouldve gone in several different directions. The point of my article is not me saying that the foundation was set how I wanted it, but that management set it and continues to do so.
On offense they have their QB, now he may or may not pan out, but this is their plan. We got the RB’s they wanted, our line is young and what they call the foundation of the team. At WR we brought in K2, and brought back Clayton and AB. Now, I agree, Clayton sucks, but management again had their plan, whatever that was, and are moving forward with it.
On defense we have Stylez who is probably an average end, we have Ruud and Hayes at LB and I think Black can grow into a competent LB. Talib and T-Jack will hold down the fort on D.
Again, this is their plan. Year 1 is done and they did what they set out too, or so they’ve said. Im not saying next year will be a 10-6 year, but remember, this year we had everyone saying after a few games taht we wouldnt win a game. Then people said we would only win 1 game. We ended up with 3 wins (I know, not great). So to say with hopefully more talent next year to perform the same way we did this year is a farce.
Ive said it all along, as long as they make progress, which was done at the end of the year, things are going the right way. Truth be told, as long as we end up consistent winners in it for the long haul, I dont care if it takes another year. Do it right, and set the organization up for years of success. I dont want a one year run and then destruction.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
I completely agree with the article...
only the D line remains to be set. I think some parts of 2010 will be used to set the foundation too.
Under DUngy, the Bucs won with a two year plan, but they also had Sapp, Brooks, Lynch and Nickerson in place.
In their Birth, the Bucs had a 5 year plan come to pass in 4, but that situation was different.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan since 1979
A farce?
I didn’t say they would do the same. I said they will win four or five games if they don’t obtain any new players in free agency. Do you honestly expect them to draft more than two or three quality starters? Sure, they might get some guys in the 3rd-4th rounds that might be pro bowlers one day, but they will not be able to contribute much next season (see Miller, Roy).
I’m saying that your three year plan has some merit, as long as it starts this year. This is the year we set the foundation. Last year was a waste. We didn’t give Freeman all the snaps, so he will still be learning on the job next year. We didn’t establish an identity on offense, and all we learned on defense is that we had a bunch of late round draft picks that can’t cut it (aside from Geno) in the NFL. In my opinion that leaves us very little to build upon. Next season I expect them to win anywhere from 4-6 games. In 2011 7-9 and 2012 playoffs.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
LeeCaz, we lost those games vs back up QBs, but won the ones vs Hasselback and Brees.
I respect your opinion, but also totally disagree with it Lee, the defense isnt a mess, it was the 9th ranked Defense as far as scoring goes when the change took place, and all three linebackers appear to be set. The D line is the only place where wholesale changes still need to be made.
On offense, the Line cant be blamed for being told to lose weight, gain weight, zone block, etc. Resulted in an off year.
And Freeman has NOT thrown a crazy number of interceptions, even for a rookie.
I dont know how you can even say that, when THIS YEAR, Stafford threw 20 picks in the same 10 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan since 1979
To be fair
Stafford also had nearly a 100 more pass attempts. He averaged one interception for roughly every 18 pass attempts. Freeman averaged one interception for every 16 pass attempts. Neither stat is good, and I never endorsed Matthew Stafford either. I thought he was a scrub in college and I think he is a scrub today. I do not think he will be a good NFL QB.
The secondary needs TWO new corners, and a new SS. Ronde has had it. He is done. The linebacking corp is a question mark, and we have to hope that they re-sign Ruud. If it goes to six year UFA’s he is likely to be a very unhappy camper without a new contract and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see his production on the field falter and he may even come up with a mysterious injury.
You’re right about the defensive line. It is horrible and until it improves teams are going to keep running all over us. I can’t even acknowledge you’re cherry picked 9th ranked defensive stat. As I said in my comment above, There are a lot of factors that went into the “defensive turnaround”. I’m 50/50 about whether or not it was really improved, or they just saw bad offenses for four games (although Matt Moore is probably better than Delhomme).
Look, I’m just being a realist. This team is nowhere close to 8-8. You can hope for it all you want, but hoping doesn’t manifest itself into reality very often. The fact is we were a bad team last year with bad players and inexperienced coaches. Nothing has changed. The influx of rookies from the draft is sure to improve the team, but not enough to earn us 5 more wins.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
And Freeman also had 9 fumbles
although only two lost. That is a lot of freaking fumbles.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
Ronde had a fine year, talib is on verge of pro-bowl status, but we do need one safety.
I didn’t see any problems with Ronde this year, not o ly that but he played ok in bates’ system too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan since 1979
http://www.bucem.com/2010/1/28/1274796/ronde-barber-was-the-2nd-worst-cb
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
When I did get to that site, it overloaded my PC with popups, just a heads up.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
What a terrible way of measuring cornerbacks
Aside from the flaws with QB rating itself, it doesn’t measure the amount of targets, only lists 27 cornerbacks, and doesn’t account for opposition. Also, a secondary player is especially vulnerable to defensive problems elsewhere. I’m pretty sure Barber bit a couple of times when he thought he had help over the top, only for Sabby to fuck up.
Interceptions are also a bad measure, passes defensed as a percentage of the number of targets is a better measure.
It would be much more interesting to see Barber’s numbers compared to Talib’s numbers, too.
What is with all the people dropping "F" bombs on this site?!
The past couple of days have been really bad. Please follow the Buc ’Em community guidelines!
As for your comment about a terrible way to evaluate corners, I wouldn’t know. Interceptions and PD seem pretty important for a corner’s stats to me. As far as flaws with QB rating, meh. I could care less. Obviously QBs were completing a high percentage of passes against him when he was targeted. That is what I got out of that stat. I didn’t put up the fanshot, nor have I ever seen that site before. I just thought thought the title was funny given the context of the conversation.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
My apologies
Interceptions are by and large more random than Passes Defensed, hence why Passes Defensed is a much better measure of CB efficiency than picks.
And because of the way a secondary interacts, measuring a CB on its own is also problematic. The best way to view Ronde’s competence is to compare his numbers to Aqib’s, because both were working in similar situations.
Ronde will have gotten quite a lot of targets given that Aqib was the other corner, though. Ronde is definitely not the old Ronde, but he’s definitely not one of the worst CBs in the league either.
I’m a big proponent of FootballOutsiders’ stats. According to their preliminary 2009 charting stats, Ronde Barber wasn’t in the bottom of the league on any of the stats: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/stat-day-2009-cb-charting-stats-ii
I just have a question. Why does the back up QBs always come into the conversation. Tampa basically used back up QBs all year. Those back ups had more starts than Freeman and JJ, but no one give the Bucs the same out…You never hear "Well, the Fins looked good against the Bucs, but just because they played a new QB. " Or, Dallas beat the Bucs, but only because they were using a back up QB". No offense to the peole that are psoting it, and I get why you say it. I just find it to be unfare.
I agree with the article, we are on a three year plan.
I don't think anyone here are optomists.
I see this season will actually be a good season for the Bucs. Somehow they will address the Defense and implement a good defense. Then, I bet they finally give Freeman 110% attention and have a TRUE system for him. I think we might have a shot to make the playoffs. Sorry for bad spelling and don’t shoot down my idea! Ha.
See That's the problem.
Die-Hard fans have too high of expectations and irrational evaluations of where the team is. Buc Wild is absolutely right. The defense has reverted back to the Tampa 2 giving it an identity. The offense is a pass-first offense with a young quarterbacks. This is the foundation of what is here.
Personally, I hate some of it. I hate the identity our offense has. It doesn’t fit the talent, and Olsen should be fired for this. We will win a few more games 5-6ish and finish with a sub-par season. It’s a process. Very rarely do full re-builds happen over night. Which is also why Morris should have job security, so we don’t have to start this whole dag-gum thing over. However, because of fans like you, he doesn’t. This doesn’t mean Morris should be shielded from criticism, but that it shouldn’t cost him his job. Not yet.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
The team identity is in place on the O side
Sorry UNFNOLE, but the O is a run first offense, has been since Dungy, even Gruden had to face that fact, and the last 6 game of last season really impressed that upon the team, especially with a rookie QB and a line that was switching horses mid-stream by going back to the power-run blocking scheme from that f’d up Denver Bronco zone or should I say cut blocking scheme. There were to many changes mid-stream last season to get a real good read, up until the last 3rd of the season we didn’t know which way we were going. But it seems to have been turned around and we have found that identity, power running, roll or bootleg the QB for shots down field (basic Steeler football). The D needs help, we need a big fat athletic run stuffer to play inside with our 3T guy, we need a new corner sorry Ronde, but the production has dropped and he has lost a step, he was beat consistently all season, his saving grace was experience and natural instinct, and we need to get rid of Sabby, reminds me of a lesser Adam Archuleta which is really bad. We have 10 picks this draft, McCoy should be available at #3, the lions need a LT way more than they need a DT, Stafford took a beating from his blindside last season, so they will probably take Okung, Suh is gone to StL, so we will have McCoy fall into our laps, skip Berry, we can pick up a safety in the later rounds, we need to take a WR with our #2 pick, and another D-lineman with our 2nd 2nd rounder (did that make sense). 3-13 is really bad, but how many games were we in until the end, where a break in our direction we could have won, 3 or 4 maybe? So 8 and 8 is not out of the question with a better D-line, more experience at QB and an O-line that knows and understands their roles and assignments.
Buc'em if they can't take a joke.
What does Dungy's sputtering offense have to do with Morris' sputtering team? Nothing.
It’s been almost 10 years since Dungy was here, and there’s only 1 player on the team from that time, and that’s Barber. Gruden changed the offense and the players and let the D go. Morris came in and did his own thing, and it back-fired, then changed it back. All 3 coaches did different things, and none of them are related to each other.
I now completely understand the term "Gooberville"
The numbers don't lie.
You can pretend all you want that we are a run-first team but we passed as much as anyone in the league.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Um, we are anything but a run first offense.
Ive counted the plays game by game and posted the lack of running in comparison to the passing game. Gruden was about as far from run first as you could get this side of Andy Reid. Some of the passing was necessitated by being behind in games, but running the ball was not our first priority.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Problem is our Offense has always been built to be one though
IMHO we never had the finesse or skill players that a pass first WC offense requires, we always had big linemen and power backs, even Dunn would run between the tackles.
Buc'em if they can't take a joke.
by PalmBeachBucco on Feb 3, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
We all agree that we should be run-first...
but we aren’t. Our identity is a pass-first offense, created by Greg Olsen. Like it or not.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Competence is grossly underestimated in this discussion
We were one of the worst teams running the ball this year on a play-by-play basis. That’s probably a very big reason for the lack of consistent running the past season.
I couldn't agree more.
I have canvased the Buc "Em pages with articles of run first, we should run, lets run the ball etc all season. I am a HUGE believer in the run game unless very specific criteria is met (i.e., you have Peyton Manning or 2007 Brady).
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
I have always believed that franchises have an organic personality and a philosophy
Sometimes it takes time for them to develop, but franchises do have a personality and philosophy, it may come ownership or a particularly strong coaching era, but they do have them. Look at the Giants, before The Tuna, they threw it all over the place with Tarkington, then they nose dived for 10 years, Parcels comes in and they become this power running team, which they are to this day. Dallas, JJ comes in and they draft Aikman, Irvin, and Smith, they are the same team scheme wise today with Romo, Austin, and Barber. Sometimes teams nose dive and come out of it years later with a different philosophy, the Packers are a good example, prior to Holmgren and Wolf that was a bad team who ran the ball, bring in Favre and they are chucking it everywhere, today, different management, different players same philosophy. Look at the Bucs, prior to Dungy, a bad team, Dungy brings in a defense first philosophy, the ownership buys in, the players buy in and it becomes the franchise philosophy, today what is EVERYONES main complaint about the Bucs our D sucks, we used to be the best D in football, etc., so now your fanbase has bought into the philosophy. The Bucs are a run first Offense, Gruden couldn’t change that, the dink and dunk just does not work within the Buc DNA, it just doesn’t, so we know we are run first, don’t fuck with it, get your O-line straightened out, get a big ass FB and a power back or two and run the ball.
Buc'em if they can't take a joke.
Sorry.
Buc'em if they can't take a joke.
by PalmBeachBucco on Feb 3, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get that "organic" personality.
It’s a culture of what coaches feel like they have to accomplish and its absurd. There is no reason why you have to live up to the legacy of previous teams. I don’t disagree with you that it happens, but I don’t think it has to.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Bad choice of word
Buc'em if they can't take a joke.
by PalmBeachBucco on Feb 3, 2010 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this article and have been saying as much for about 9 months.
Gary Williams for President!
Put Rose in the Hall of Fame
Well
Thank god we got the first year over with, just hope our QB can keep the ball and take the sack then giving it away I felt sorry on some of the games cause I always see our D on the field more then our O and some dum turnovers, to me I think we should do fine with the guys we have on the roster cause I think some of the good players were injurd most of them was our D-line more like DE. With them back for next season we shall see how things go out. The thing that’s funny is some of the injurd players we have never played pro longer then 4 years just hope they our not a bust. Cause that would suck
IF U AIN'T A BUC GET THE BUC OUT OF HERE
by WE GOING TO THE SHIP on Feb 4, 2010 10:22 AM EST via mobile reply actions

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