Stats are for losers, unless you want to compare teams.
by Buc Wild on Nov 4, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
in Advanced Statistics
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PrintRaheem Morris hurts my feelings every time he talks. Saying stats is for losers is like kicking puppies. Well maybe it's not that bad, but it's coach speak that holds zero water. We get it Rah, the team is 5-2 despite what any traditional or advanced stats say. And he's right, ultimately the "W" is the most important part of the game. But don't tell me stats are useless when you start to throw numbers around. And even though football isn't played on a spreadsheet or calculator, those numbers can be very important. Why else do teams run on 3rd and 1. Because it is statistically more probable to pick up a first down that way.
Anyways, off the high horse, on to some numbers.
I always like to combine traditional and advanced, just to give everyone a taste of each and cover the whole spectrum. As always, traditional stats are being pulled of NFL.com and advanced off of Footballoutsiders.com
Total Offense - Tradtional
Yards Per Game: 321.7 (21st)
Points Per Game: 19.4 (20th)
Time of Possession: 31:00 (14th)
Turnover differential: +8 (more of an overall stat) (2nd)
Total Offense - Advanced
Offensive DVOA: -0.4% (19th)
Rather than do offense and defense and break it up by pass or run, I thought this would be a good place to stop. Why? Look at those ranks. Middle of the pack, but outside of turnover differential (fueled by the defense), each of those ranks are pretty similar.
Now we can get onto passing and rushing offense.
Total Passing Offense - Traditional
Yards Per Game: 216.9 (18th)
Passer Rating: 87.5 (14th)
Average per Attempt: 6.8 (18th)
Total Passing Offense - Advanced
Passing DVOA: 14.8% (18th)
Middle of the pack again. Which isn't a bad thing given the youth on the team.
Total Rushing Offense - Traditional
Yards per Game: 104.9 (18th)
Yards per Carry: 4.2 (10th)
Attempts per Game: 25.1 (22nd)
Total Rushing Offense - Advanced
Rushing DVOA: -8.0% (23rd)
Hard to believe we're only 23rd. Seems like we should be about 47th (yes I know there are only 32 teams).
The offense is performing adequately, enough to get some wins.
No deep analysis here, just a smattering of stats. It tells us a few things. Overall we're middle of the pack. I bet if we broke it down by quarter the first quarter would be about league worst followed by a laegu best fourth quarter, or close to it.
My last rant on stats for today. I understand the point Morris is making. You can't get too wrapped up in stats in a team sport where subjectivity and lack of separation cloud each number. For example, we're 10th in YPC but 28th in OL DVOA when running. I'd rather rank 32nd in every category and go 12-4 then finish at the top in each category and go 5-11 (Hello San Diego). The key is to finding the right balance between each.
As always, feel free to discuss and ask questions.
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I do like our +8 in the turnover ratio...
but it has to be tempered with CLE, CAR, CIN, ARI and STL on the schedule.
If we played better teams it would be more telling. The 5-2 still looks good on paper.
The way I look at it is
that last year we lost ugly to bad teams and this year we’re winning those games ugly. That’s a huge step forward. The turnover ratio (and probably the 4th quarter stats as BW hints at) show that we’ve got a scrappy, opportunistic team. That will be a tremendous advantage in years to come as we keep adding talent.
I'm of similar thought
The schedule obviously stacks up well for the Bucs this year, but we saw that coming into the season. The fact that they’re winning games against the lower echelon of teams, means that they’re beating the teams they should be beating.
The stats are middle of the road, and the win-loss record of the teams the Bucs have defeated certainly isn’t incredible. But the fact that those wins, and middle of the pack play are coming from a young team is encouraging. I know it’s a team I want to watch.
Who needs normal sleep patterns?
by AcadianTraverse on Nov 4, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
it doesnt matter, a W is a W
last year the Saints played against Rams, redskins, bills and Lions,teams that were more than awful last year, and nobody says something about that!!!! now the bucs beat them and all is about “awful” teams.
another point, if the league is plagued of horrible teams, we are talking about a horrible league, so i guess thats not an excuse
finally, a W is a W, this shitty browns beat Saints in NO, so afterall thats not a bad team if u beat defending champs!!!
why not
all people love the saints last season but nobody remember that was a shitty schedule for them, the mentioned teams and twice against us was an easy schedule, and they lost with us one of them!! so i guess a W is a W no matter waht u think, i bet dalASS want our record right now!! and they lose against the “super powerful” jacksonville jaguars leaded by the pro bowler DAVID GARRARD!!!! so i stand with a W is a W no matter waht rest says about it
That's because a lot of their wins were dominant wins
Especially early in the season. Plus, they didn’t lose any games until very late in the season.
We on the other hand have won 5 close games, not dominant games, and have also lost 2 already.
IF YOU DONT LIKE IT
U CAN BUC OFF!!!!!!
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
Sorry I actually care for the team
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
UNLIKE THE GLAZERS!!!!
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
So then a car is a car?
I’ll take the Ferrari and you can have the 1973 Maverick
by Cracker Ball on Nov 4, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I take whatever has the most WINS
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
A W IS A W!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FIRE THOSE CANNONS!!!!!!!!!!!! BUCS WINNING THIS!!!!!
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
Where's the defensive stats? That's where we're hurting the most.
I'm not negative, I'm just telling you how it is.
Just didn't have time to post them.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
I'll post them tomorrow if I can, but no promises.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Well..
I actually heard a discussion about this on a podcast I was listening to. It’s not that stats are for losers, it’s more along the lines of stats are what the losers of games use to explain why they didn’t win. More often then not when a team wins, they will say things like “we played hard out there, we had big plays from this person and that person” whereas the losing team is going to say stuff like “going 3-for-15 on 3rd down will not win ball games…” Just wanted to throw that out there really quick.
Onto the stats. I think with the emergence of Blount, our time of possession will increase making our defense more rested and therefore possibly better. I think that Freeman maturing so quickly and making very smart decisions has really helped with our turnover differential also. Now that we have a threat at running back, this offense reminds me quite a bit of the Steelers offense from Ben’s rookie year.
You don’t run on 3rd & 1 because there’s a higher conversion percentage, there’s a higher conversion percentage because it’s fairly easy to run for one yard. Cart and horse.
Stats can serve to highlight trends, but the bulk of a coach or players job does not involve them, but instead more nebulous factors like quality of play and scheme. The people who most often quote stats are the talking heads on various sports shows, journalists and the nerdier parts of the fanbase. It’s understandable why this group might be mistaken for losers.
Statistically speaking, over a large sample size running on 3rd and 1 has been more effective than throwing.
Teams dont run because its easy. Otherwise, you’d throw on every 3rd and 1 against top run D’s but yet teams still pound the ball on 3rd and 1 against them.
Why do teams kick on extra point instead of going for two every time? Probably because its statistically more probable that they wil be successful and not be put in a hole.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
I guarantee you every NFL team has people going over stats for analysis
Statistics are also used by coaches to decide on what scheme and personnel to play in what situation. What play is the opposing team likely to run from a certain formation or personnel grouping? Those sorts of things are in every gameplan in the NFL, every week. Statistics can also easily be used to evaluate play, or at least highlight areas that may need further scrutiny but aren’t immediately evident. Stats aren’t a be-all end-all and they aren’t complete, but they are certainly a valuable part of any analysis.
Statistics are everywhere in the NFL, both behind the scenes and out in the open.
I’d also lay a lot of money on Raheem Morris extensively using stats in evaluation and gameplanning. You have to view a remark like that as coachspeak. He’s not going to tell his team they suck because the stats are bad, he’s trying to instill some confidence in these players. It’s also a saying often used to mean “A losing team often points to the stats.” So stats are for losers – that is, losing teams.
And to an extent the remark is right: as long as you win, the stats don’t matter. The NFL is about winning games, after all.
.
“The people who most often quote stats are the talking heads on various sports shows, journalists and the nerdier parts of the fanbase. It’s understandable why this group might be mistaken for losers.”
:AHEM:
I think he’s talking about both of you.
I believe that football is way behind other sports when it comes to high level statistical analysis...
when compared to baseball or basketball.
Boom. Outta Here.
CUZ STATS ARE FOR LOSERS
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
I agree.
I think FO has made quite a few strides though. There is some good stuff out there, it’s just nothing consistent or anything that gets wheels because of a lack of support for it. ProFootballReference has some good measurements as well.
...the Seminole guy from the other site.
I don't think looking at public statistical analysis is really indicative of internal statistical analysis, though
I’d think that teams themselves are way ahead of FO and PFR and the like.
Right.
They are, but it’s very specific to certain plays, etc.
For instance how often is the LG hitting his cut-blocks. They measure all of that stuff. It’s stuff that no one will ever take the time to reasearch for every player. Baseball is much easier. Player X is hitting % against RHB with RISP.
If I were to measure how often the LDE is successfully stunting when there is a blitz, it would A) be hard to measure success and B) be impossible to know without knowing the play. I guarantee though teams have some sort of measurements to attach to this sort of stuff.
...the Seminole guy from the other site.
Stats are for losers
so if you read this… you are a loser.
5-2! WE WINNIN! FIRE THOSE CANNONS
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
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