Even at 1-15, no guarantee the Bucs can get 1st pick.
by Niko Houllis on Dec 8, 2009 10:25 AM EST
Email
Print
Even if the Bucs commit themselves to having the most losses in franchise history, the Bucs will likely still lose out on the chance to draft with the first pick in the NFL draft. After his performance in the Big 12 championship game, Defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh is first on the list for Bucs fans this offseason, to join the Pewter Pirates in April. But even if the Bucs lose out the rest of the year, and end up with a 1-15 record, worst in club history for total losses, (They went 0-14 in 1976) that still does not guarantee them the first crack at picking Suh. Thats because by NFL rules one of the first tiebreakers for the draft is strength of schedule, and the Bucs has been a doozy. Meaning, they are supposed to lose all these games, but the Rams and Browns with their easier schedule should have won more games, and thus they will pick ahead of the Bucs if they both or either finish tied with Tampa Bay at the end of the season.
We have to root for the Browns and Rams.
In as much as we hope for a win this year, that means we need the Brownies and Rams to win twice then! What are the chances of these teams winning one more game and giving us first place in the Suh-weepstakes?
Cleveland Browns- Probably the best chance to win a game here. They play on a short week this Thursday home against the Steelers who have lost 4 straight. After a full 10 days of rest, they play at Kansas City, and return home to finish off the season playing the Raiders in the Bruce Gradkowski Bowl.
St. Louis Rams- This is a little tougher, but its possible. They play Sunday at Tennessee, which is probably going in the Titans favor, but remember the Rams are playing bad teams close. Then they Host the Houston Texans which is winnable. The final game of the year is at Arizona, and you have to hope that the Cards are resting all starters after the regular season playoff spot and division title should be won by that point.
So there you have it.
US? We host the Jets, play at New Orleans who now has a two game lead for the NFC home field, and that game would be the clincher, and then host the Falcons last game of the year...who may still be in it at that point.
Jets are our best chance at a win wouldn't you say?
In 2006 the Bucs beat the Browns and then required a coin toss to determine draft order. Cleveland won the toss, and took Joe Thomas left Tackle. We took Gaines Adams. Lets get Cleveland this time guys.
42 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Hopefully the Bucs get the first pick (atleast ahead of Cleveland)
At worst, i think we get the number 3 pick overall.
For Cleveland, i think they will pick up Suh if they had the chance. Then again, they already have Pro Bowl NT Shaun Rodgers. However last i heard, he wanted out of Cleveland. The Browns could even go for a QB…
St Louis will most likely go for a QB, either Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, or Jake Locker.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
A Rams fan posted in another thread here and said they'd take Suh if he was there.
Take that for what its worth. But I guess I’ll be a Browns and Rams fan the rest of the year (ugh, I just threw up a little).
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Yes, immodium AFC doesn't help either!
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
by Niko Houllis on Dec 8, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I'm rooting AGAINST getting the first pick.
The first pick is a financial death sentence. You have to overpay for an unproven player. While I would love to have Suh, I don’t ever want to pay first overall pick money to anybody. If he can drop a bit that would be ideal. If not, there will be somebody else in the top 5 that can still be an impact player for a lot less money.
Good news then
No salary cap so he won’t eat up a lot of “cap room” in his first year. No idea how the new CBA will function, but this is the one time you DO want the #1 pick (assuming the Glazers will pay for it) as it wont eat up any space.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Um, no... If he's the best, then u get the best.
It’s not our money, and the glazers are in need of a high priced player for p.r.
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
by Niko Houllis on Dec 8, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
The Glazers aren't cheap, they're smart.
They spend smart, and we’ve done well since they’ve been the owners. I have no doubt they spend on Suh if we get him. Who knows, maybe they trade up to get him.
We have not fared nearly as well
since the old man had his 2nd stroke and the two sons have taken on more responsibility. It is like two different organizations.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
The sons have always run the team, Malcom only was around to show that he can really pull his pants up to his nipples.
They knew the rebuild was coming, and I do believe they stayed out of the way of Gruden and Allen as well. Except for major decisions, they are pretty much hands off owners, but I seriously doubt they have told anybody not to spend.
We all know that the number overall is very rarely the best player picked in the draft.
Lets be honest, the draft a crap shoot for the most part. As much as everybody says that Suh is a can’t miss, it just adds to the fact that he certainly can miss. I haven’t seen a number one pick that is worth as much upfront money as they require.
The financial impact is huge, even without a salary cap. Even without an official cap, the Glazers will still have their own personal cap. Taking a large chunk of what they are willing to spend and dumping it into one player takes away from other parts of the team.
Also, who cares about PR? If you win, the stadium will fill up. People still won’t go if the team sucks but Suh is stopping the run…
Although I think there should be a rookie cap, I don't care how much a player makes
as long as it doesn’t cripple the team in the long run. That’s up to the GM to work a deal where the player gets paid and doesn’t prevent the team from building in the future.
The point is that it can cripple the team.
Look at JaMarcus Russel. You have to dump tons of money into the player and if he ends up sucking your still stuck with him and his salary.
It depends on what the alternatives are to Suh.
If we pick in the top 5, it wont save much money and where do we spend the other money? If its on young, cheap talent, then sure, but if its on middle age (for football) talent, then no thanks. Im prepared to take our lumps now, like we are doing this year. Bring in young guys, build a foundation. Dont touch free agency unless we have someone we can utilize for a decent cost long term. I dont want 34 year olds being brought in right now.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
by Buc Wild on Dec 8, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we need a few older guys to balance out the team.
It would be nice to have have a team entirely comprised of 26 year olds on the up and up, but this is impossible to attain. Look what a difference an older guy like Sharper made for the Saints defense this year.
The other problem is that by developing all this young talent we would essentially be serving as a farm system for other teams. After their four and five year contracts were up, and they had learned the ropes in pewter, their is no guarantee they stay here (especially if we are still losing).
The fact of the matter is that I want them to do whatever is necessary to win. I’m not willing to sit back and hope that their 3-4 year plan works. This season was bad enough, I don’t want to sit through another one. I have no problem with them going out and spending some money on proven veteran contributors. We simply can’t hope to be competitive by only building through the draft.
We are going to require a quick fix or two every single year if we want to put the best product on the field. For instance, this year we will most likely address the safety position early in the draft. Being that Sabby sucks, and his replacement will be a wet behind the ears rookie, whats the problem with bringing in a guy like Darren Sharper to play spectacular football for a season or two while the kiddo learns the ropes? It’s a win win situation.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
Plus, a couple savvy veteran pickups and a solid draft could mean an instant turn around.
This doesn’t have to be a 4 year plan.
As long as its cost controlled and we are able to move pieces without losing a beat.
I don’t want us to sign an aging DB, and then a year later dump him with no replacement. Thats just a wasted year. We saw what happens when we just keep playing older guys without getting replacemetns ready.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
True
They would need to develop young players off the field. I don’t know why this is such a problem for us. Other teams seemingly do it effortlessly. The Steelers have a never ending supply of linebackers etc.
All this “lets let the young guys go out there and see what they’re made of” stuff is for the preseason. Another regular season like that and we will be lucky to win three or four games.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
This is what seperates the great teams from everbody else.
You have to be able to consistently develop young talent from the draft and the scrap heap in order to be successful. The big named guys cost so much, and they can only fill so many slots. There are too many other jobs on the field that need to be filled by young players. Its not a coincidence that teams can regularly plug in unknown guys that perform, it points to a highly talented and knowledgeable front office.
Check out Brian Billick’s book, he goes into depth into stuff like this.
Bottom line, we need to learn how to draft… and fast. Gruden was able to salvage average seasons with undervalued free agents, but the glory days of the Bucs were based on solid drafting. If it starts with Suh, so be it, but it also requires drafting contributors in the late rounds too. That is why sometimes its better to trade down and stock pile picks. It gives you more chances and lowers your bust rate. The Pats and Colts have been doing this for years, and it works. Its not about your top 2 picks, its about every pick you make over a couple of years.
Exactly.
I just want us to put the best team possible on the field. I don’t want to be a team of mercenaries like we were under Gruden, but bringing in veteran talent to quick fix a hole or two is a necessary part of being a successful NFL team in this day and age IMO.
I know it costs more, but I’m a fan, not the GM. I don’t care what the books say. As a fan I know that we are 30 million under the cap and have one win. Let’s sign our rookies and re-sign Bryant or whomever they choose to, and then spend the rest on bringing in talented players to compete at the positions we need help. I would rather them spend the money on something rather than nothing. They can always cut them if they don’t pan out. It’s not like we have to worry about a cap hit or anything.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
Now LeeCaz, I LIKE this comment (Exactly)
so maybe I misunderstood your other one.
Again, I just dont want to see spending on 30+ guys right now. 2011? sure.
I dont see us having a bad year next year. I think Freeman and the guys we have NOW plus a weaker schedule give us a good chance at 6-10, 7-9 or 8-8 next year. Some great pics in the draft and that can turn into a 9-7 team. Then 2011 is a year we should be a strong team with a strong foundation of young talent, that we keep. We were able to keep the Bucs of old, we can do it again.
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
Sorry LeeCaz, but your wrong..
You can sit back and win long term.
Your plan to bring in veterans to compete now takes away from the long term goal of building a solid foundation, just like we had in 1997-2000.
The time to bring veterans in is when you have a foundation that is turning it around, and your able to say " Ok we need a Tailback, Right Tackle and Corner, and were superbowl capable.
Then, you do it.
Otherwise, you cant sit through two losing seasons so that you can build a powerhouse like New England or Pittsburgh or Indianapolis? then were hopelessly stuck with 9-7 teams like the 07/08 Gruden years. That is your plan at its best.
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
have you seen the stadium lately? they need PR!
Winning will bring people back though..you can bet that.
So will a healthier economy too.
We will be back to sell outs and waiting lists in a few years again.
But you are correct on the draft being a crap shoot, but some positions are more of a shoot, and some are more stable. Also, some players look so good, they come across that good too.
But ultimately, your correct. Suh COULD be a bust. I just doubt it.
This is probably the last year for crazy rookie salaries. Which is why so many JRs are coming out. This is the year to draft high. Next years draft will NOT be very deep.
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
I don't care
After watching him beat-up on Texas, I want Suh. I’ve never seen a defensive tackle dominate a game like that, especially against an offense as potent as the Longhorns. Experts say he’s got a lot of work to do to become an effective NFL prospect because of his size, but he’s got more upside than Gaines Adams ever had, which isn’t saying a ton, but I have a good feeling about him, especially in our defensive system.
Go get SUH!
"I'm throwing rocks tonight. Mark it, Dude" - Donny
We have to play Seattle too BTW.
I don’t see any other team passing on Suh regardless of their needs. He’s special and you don’t pass on special. Every single team in the league can use him, and the thought of any team passing on him is ridiculous. Our only hope is to lose out and those other teams win some. Also, I think that NFL rule blows. Why reward a team for having it easier, I think that’s retarded.
I just feel if someone can pass on Reggie bush....
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
by Niko Houllis on Dec 8, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
No I mean that someone passed on Reggie Bush who was supposed to be the No. 1 pick.
AP was a top 10 pick going into the draft. Now in hindsight, AP was the best guy in the last couple drafts probably.
Viva la Bucco Bruce 1976-1996 (reincarnated 2009)
The Rams could use them and Shaun Rogers wants out of Cleveland. This would let the Browns replace him and potentially see no falloff in production.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
He may be, but (this is just my opinion), he seems like someone who would have attitude or weight problems.
Thats pure conjecture, but I dont think anyone passes up Suh.
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Other teams simple have other needs.
Off the top of my head, I think the Rams need a QB (especially from this draft), OL, or WR more urgently. Though their coach is Spagnuolo, so he could easily try to build a Giants type defense. Browns, from what I’ve seen, Dline is the least of their many problems. And behind us I definitely know the Lions could use him. So our biggest threat are possibly the Rams and Lions.
Here's the thing on QB's this year.
The Rams have the first pick most likely, you can’t pass on Suh, they have to take him. They could easily package up their second round and a later round, shoot even next years first to get another first round pick to get a QB. I think Bradford is gonna be better than people are saying, he’s be a steal and he’s gonna fall in the draft because of his injury. This draft is QB rich, so there’s no way anybody passes on Suh.
Is Bradford staying one more year or coming out?
Because if he’s coming out I don’t think they can pass on him.
Bradford is gonna drop because of his injury
but I don’t think he should. He’s for sure one of the top QB prospects in the draft, way better than Clausen IMO. I do hope if we don’t get the #1 pick the Rams go for a QB, but like I said, you just can’t pass on a guy like Suh.
to counter kurby
“Lets be honest, the draft a crap shoot for the most part. As much as everybody says that Suh is a can’t miss, it just adds to the fact that he certainly can miss. I haven’t seen a number one pick that is worth as much upfront money as they require.”
I disagree, Peyton Manning was worth every cent.
I would also say that Mario Williams
was worth his money as well.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
And Eli Manning and Carson Palmer to a lesser extent.
"Three or four plane crashes and we're in the playoffs" - John McKay
Palmer has a Patriot or Colts line
He would of never had his problems.
My mistake, I shouldn't have spoken in absolutes.
There are definitely top picks that pay off. Peyton Manning being one that was obviously worth every penny.
Perhaps to put it in a better way: The upfront money required for the risk isn’t worth it.
Because for every Peyton there is a Tim Couch.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bucs Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Jonathan Vilma sues Roger Goodell for defamatory statements made during bounty investigation
- New York Giants receive Super Bowl XLVI rings
- Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring can be yours, unfortunately
- The Shutdown Corner Interview: New York Giants DL Justin Tuck
- AFL quarterback misses game to attend wedding
